Sport Picks
Spal vs AC Milan U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie C - Group B 2024/2025 Stadio Paolo Mazza, Ferrara 
Match Events
28'
28'
Awua T.
42'
42'
Rao E.
43'
43'
Magrassi A.
AI Match Summary
AC Milan U23 in this Serie C - Group B 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored AC Milan U23.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
20%
48%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AC Milan U23
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
32%
/ Low Confidence
- AC Milan U23 have won more games recently than Spal.
- 32% — that's where the model lands on Spal taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors AC Milan U23 here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Spal Clean Sheet 68%
AC Milan U23 Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Spal | AC Milan U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 16 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.97 | 1.30 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 17, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Spal vs AC Milan U23
2:0
May 10, 2025 Serie C - Group A
AC Milan U23 vs Spal
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Spal vs AC Milan U23
1:2
Sep 26, 2024 Serie C - Group B
AC Milan U23 vs Spal
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Spal Compare
Top Goalscorer Antenucci M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48
AC Milan U23 Compare
Top Goalscorer Magrassi A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Quirini E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Spal 59 / 100
AC Milan U23 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Spal AC Milan U23
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Spal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AC Milan U23 has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Spal found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.
Spal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS AC Milan U23
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Spal
(Home) 17 May
Spal
2 : 0 AC Milan U23
10 May
AC Milan U23
1 : 0 Spal
27 Apr
Spal
3 : 0 Gubbio
23 Apr
Vis Pesaro
1 : 1 Spal
12 Apr
Spal
1 : 1 US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6
17 May
Spal
2 : 0 AC Milan U23
27 Apr
Spal
3 : 0 Gubbio
12 Apr
Spal
1 : 1 US Pontedera
30 Mar
Spal
1 : 1 Legnago Salus
17 Mar
Spal
0 : 3 Ternana
Page 1 of 3
AC Milan U23
(Away) 20 Sept
Villa Valle
1 : 2 AC Milan U23
16 Sept
AC Milan U23
2 : 1 Brusaporto
12 Sept
Pro Palazzolo
2 : 0 AC Milan U23
06 Sept
AC Milan U23
4 : 3 Caldiero Terme
02 Sept
Everton U21
1 : 2 AC Milan U23
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Villa Valle
1 : 2 AC Milan U23
12 Sept
Pro Palazzolo
2 : 0 AC Milan U23
02 Sept
Everton U21
1 : 2 AC Milan U23
04 Aug
Monza
4 : 2 AC Milan U23
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1 AC Milan U23
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Entella | 38 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 61:24 | 83 |
| 2 | Ternana | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 64:23 | 74 |
| 3 | Sassari Torres | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 55:36 | 68 |
| 4 | Pescara | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 55:35 | 67 |
| 5 | Arezzo | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 48:37 | 64 |
| 6 | Vis Pesaro | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 44:34 | 58 |
| 7 | Pineto | 38 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 46:49 | 57 |
| 8 | Pianese | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 48:48 | 53 |
| 9 | Rimini | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 45:35 | 51 |
| 10 | US Pontedera | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 54:54 | 48 |
| 11 | Gubbio | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 32:42 | 48 |
| 12 | Perugia | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 43:41 | 47 |
| 13 | Carpi | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 41:48 | 44 |
| 14 | Campobasso | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 36:46 | 43 |
| 15 | Ascoli | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 37:46 | 40 |
| 16 | Lucchese | 38 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 47:64 | 39 |
| 17 | Spal | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 41:61 | 35 |
| 18 | AC Milan U23 | 38 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 36:57 | 34 |
| 19 | Sestri Levante | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 34:54 | 31 |
| 20 | Legnago Salus | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 30:63 | 29 |
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Out)
