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Sparta Brodnica vs Polonia Sroda Wielkopol

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2015/2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sparta Brodnica play Polonia Sroda Wielkopol in the III Liga - Group II 2015/2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sparta Brodnica averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. Polonia Sroda Wielkopol averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. In past meetings, Sparta Brodnica won 0, Polonia Sroda Wielkopol won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 19, 2016 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Sparta Brodnica and 1.61 for Polonia Sroda Wielkopol. This points to a Polonia Sroda Wielkopol double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Sparta Brodnica
26%
Draws
54%
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Polonia Sroda Wielkopol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Sparta Brodnica picked up more points recently compared to Polonia Sroda Wielkopol.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.61 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Sparta Brodnica Clean Sheet 14%
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sparta Brodnica Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
Matches Played 29 41
Wins 4 21
Draws 9 9
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.9 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.12

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2016 III Liga - Group II
Sparta Brodnica vs Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
0:0
Aug 22, 2015 III Liga - Group II
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol vs Sparta Brodnica
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sparta Brodnica 21 / 100
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 51 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sparta Brodnica Polonia Sroda Wielkopol

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Polonia Sroda Wielkopol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Polonia Sroda Wielkopol & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +66.6%
8.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sparta Brodnica attacking → ← attacking Polonia Sroda Wielkopol

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sparta Brodnica scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Polonia Sroda Wielkopol let in goals in 61% of their last 41 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Sparta Brodnica went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Polonia Sroda Wielkopol lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 72
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Warta Poznan30188457:2462
2Pelikan Niechanowo30195660:2862
3Lech Poznan II30179469:2360
4Kleczew30158763:3053
5Jarocin30149747:2751
6Polonia Sroda Wielkopol30156945:2851
7Wda Swiecie30147937:3749
8KKS Kalisz301361141:4145
9Elana Torun301351251:4144
10Unia Swarzedz301081239:5538
11Start Warlubie30981340:4535
12Centra Ostrow Wielkopolski30941739:6731
13Ostrovia Ostrow30851736:4829
14Nielba Wagrowiec30651932:6823
15Sparta Brodnica304101626:5522
16Kujawianka30332426:9112