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Spartak Varna II vs Svetkavitsa

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Sat, Apr 11, 2026
3 - 0
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Spartak Varna II play Svetkavitsa in the Third League - North-East. Spartak Varna II are favorites here. Recently, Spartak Varna II averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2.3 conceded. Svetkavitsa averaged 0.2 goals scored and 3.67 conceded. In past meetings, Spartak Varna II won 4, Svetkavitsa won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Spartak Varna II and 2.06 for Svetkavitsa. This points to a Spartak Varna II double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Spartak Varna II
15%
Draws
23%
Svetkavitsa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spartak Varna II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Spartak Varna II picked up more points recently compared to Svetkavitsa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 2.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%
Spartak Varna II Clean Sheet 10%
Svetkavitsa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Varna II Svetkavitsa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 0
Draws 5 1
Losses 20 29
Goals Scored 1.23 0.2
Goals Conceded 2.3 3.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.13 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Svetkavitsa
3:0
Oct 5, 2025 Third League - North-East
Svetkavitsa vs Spartak Varna II
0:2
Mar 29, 2025 Third League - North-East
Svetkavitsa vs Spartak Varna II
1:0
Sep 21, 2024 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Svetkavitsa
2:0
Feb 25, 2024 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Svetkavitsa
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Varna II 58 / 100
Svetkavitsa 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Varna II Svetkavitsa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spartak Varna II Win (1)
Secondary Pick Spartak Varna II & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.4%
1.52
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Spartak Varna II attacking → ← attacking Svetkavitsa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spartak Varna II scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Svetkavitsa let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Spartak Varna II went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Svetkavitsa lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

20 Points in last 5 1
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
3.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Chernomorets Balchik32274192:1485
2Ludogorets III322543101:1979
3Septemvri Tervel32253489:2278
4Volov Shumen32233693:2872
5Chernolomets32203978:4363
6Benkovski32186868:4060
7Cherno More II32167965:4455
8Ustrem Donchevo321731273:6754
9Olympic Varna321061658:8036
10Aksakovo32941940:6831
11Fratria II32861840:7130
12Svetkavitsa 201432781726:4829
13Botev Novi Pazar32851934:6929
14Dorostol32842029:6728
15Spartak Varna II32752042:7226
16FK Riltzi32642231:8322
17Svetkavitsa3201315:1291