Sport Picks
Spartak Varna II vs Ustrem Donchevo
Bulgaria
Third League - North-East 2025/2026 
AI Match Summary
Ustrem Donchevo in this Third League - North-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ustrem Donchevo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Spartak Varna II
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Ustrem Donchevo lately — more wins on the board than Spartak Varna II.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- Regular Third League - North-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Spartak Varna II Clean Sheet 10%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Spartak Varna II | Ustrem Donchevo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 20 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.3 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.54 | 2.42 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 15, 2026 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:3
Sep 6, 2025 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Spartak Varna II
4:3
Mar 15, 2025 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Spartak Varna II
0:3
Sep 7, 2024 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Ustrem Donchevo
5:0
Apr 21, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Spartak Varna II
2:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Spartak Varna II 30 / 100
Ustrem Donchevo 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Spartak Varna II Ustrem Donchevo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ustrem Donchevo let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 4.60 goals.
Spartak Varna II scored in 63% of their last 30 games.
Away concern: Ustrem Donchevo has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Spartak Varna II VS Ustrem Donchevo
0.83 Goals Scored 2.5
2.33 Goals Conceded 2.25
83% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
33% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Spartak Varna II
(Home) 30 May
Spartak Varna II
1 : 1 Svetkavitsa 2014
24 May
Septemvri Tervel
4 : 1 Spartak Varna II
13 May
Spartak Varna II
0 : 3 Cherno More II
09 May
Chernomorets Balchik
2 : 0 Spartak Varna II
03 May
Spartak Varna II
0 : 0 Fratria II
Page 1 of 6
30 May
Spartak Varna II
1 : 1 Svetkavitsa 2014
13 May
Spartak Varna II
0 : 3 Cherno More II
03 May
Spartak Varna II
0 : 0 Fratria II
22 Apr
Spartak Varna II
3 : 5 Benkovski
11 Apr
Spartak Varna II
3 : 0 Svetkavitsa
Page 1 of 3
Ustrem Donchevo
(Away) 26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1 Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2 Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4 Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3 Svetkavitsa 2014
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2 Ustrem Donchevo
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
26 Aug
Botev Novi Pazar
5 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
30 May
FK Riltzi
2 : 4 Ustrem Donchevo
16 May
Chernolomets
3 : 0 Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chernomorets Balchik | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 92:14 | 85 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 101:19 | 79 |
| 3 | Septemvri Tervel | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 89:22 | 78 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 32 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 93:28 | 72 |
| 5 | Chernolomets | 32 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 78:43 | 63 |
| 6 | Benkovski | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 68:40 | 60 |
| 7 | Cherno More II | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 65:44 | 55 |
| 8 | Ustrem Donchevo | 32 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 73:67 | 54 |
| 9 | Olympic Varna | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 58:80 | 36 |
| 10 | Aksakovo | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 40:68 | 31 |
| 11 | Fratria II | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:71 | 30 |
| 12 | Svetkavitsa 2014 | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 26:48 | 29 |
| 13 | Botev Novi Pazar | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34:69 | 29 |
| 14 | Dorostol | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 29:67 | 28 |
| 15 | Spartak Varna II | 32 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 42:72 | 26 |
| 16 | FK Riltzi | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 31:83 | 22 |
| 17 | Svetkavitsa | 32 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 5:129 | 1 |
Promotion - Vtora liga 2025/2026 (Main)
