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Spartak Varna II vs Ustrem Donchevo

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ustrem Donchevo in this Third League - North-East matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ustrem Donchevo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Spartak Varna II
6%
Draws
90%
Ustrem Donchevo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ustrem Donchevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ustrem Donchevo lately — more wins on the board than Spartak Varna II.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Ustrem Donchevo taking it.
  • Regular Third League - North-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Spartak Varna II Clean Sheet 10%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartak Varna II Ustrem Donchevo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 16
Draws 5 3
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 2.88 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.88 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:3
Sep 6, 2025 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Spartak Varna II
4:3
Mar 15, 2025 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Spartak Varna II
0:3
Sep 7, 2024 Third League - North-East
Spartak Varna II vs Ustrem Donchevo
5:0
Apr 21, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Spartak Varna II
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartak Varna II 10 / 100
Ustrem Donchevo 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartak Varna II Ustrem Donchevo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UST Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Spartak Varna II scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Spartak Varna II remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Spartak Varna II VS Ustrem Donchevo
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
2.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Chernomorets Balchik32274192:1485
2Ludogorets III322543101:1979
3Septemvri Tervel32253489:2278
4Volov Shumen32233693:2872
5Chernolomets32203978:4363
6Benkovski32186868:4060
7Cherno More II32167965:4455
8Ustrem Donchevo321731273:6754
9Olympic Varna321061658:8036
10Aksakovo32941940:6831
11Fratria II32861840:7130
12Svetkavitsa 201432781726:4829
13Botev Novi Pazar32851934:6929
14Dorostol32842029:6728
15Spartak Varna II32752042:7226
16FK Riltzi32642231:8322
17Svetkavitsa3201315:1291