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Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils

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Optibet Virsliga 2022 Slokas Stadions, Jūrmala
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Match Events

8' Event
Gaucho L.
Assist: Alpens M.
32'
Sub
Miksto M. In: Idowu D.
Out: Miksto M.
33' Event
Afanasjevs V.

AI Match Summary

Spartaks Jurmala in this Optibet Virsliga 2022 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spartaks Jurmala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Spartaks Jurmala
30%
Draws
9%
BFC Daugavpils
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Spartaks Jurmala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • BFC Daugavpils have won more games recently than Spartaks Jurmala.
  • Model gives Spartaks Jurmala a 61% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Spartaks Jurmala Clean Sheet 20%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spartaks Jurmala BFC Daugavpils
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 11
Draws 3 10
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.24
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 22, 2022 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Spartaks Jurmala
1:1
Aug 8, 2022 Virsliga
Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils
2:1
May 22, 2022 Virsliga
Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils
2:0
Apr 15, 2022 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Spartaks Jurmala
2:0
Sep 11, 2021 Virsliga
Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spartaks Jurmala Compare

Top Goalscorer Gaucho L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Asamoah K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Top Goalscorer Afanasjevs V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spartaks Jurmala 85 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spartaks Jurmala BFC Daugavpils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spartaks Jurmala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Spartaks Jurmala remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Spartaks Jurmala scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

BFC Daugavpils has conceded goals in 76% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

- VS BFC Daugavpils
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Spartaks Jurmala

(Home)
12 Nov
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Spartaks Jurmala
06 Nov
FK Auda Riga
0 : 1
Spartaks Jurmala
29 Oct
Spartaks Jurmala
2 : 0
FK Metta
22 Oct
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 1
Spartaks Jurmala
16 Oct
Super Nova
1 : 3
Spartaks Jurmala
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BFC Daugavpils

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2
RFS
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3
FK Auda Riga
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valmiera 36 26 7 3 101:25 85
2 Riga FC 36 26 3 7 68:23 81
3 RFS 36 22 10 4 83:32 76
4 FK Liepaja 36 21 7 8 72:42 70
5 FK Auda Riga 36 15 6 15 42:36 51
6 Tukums 2000 36 11 5 20 38:69 38
7 BFC Daugavpils 36 9 7 20 30:67 34
8 Spartaks Jurmala 36 9 4 23 37:75 31
9 FK Metta 36 5 7 24 41:86 22
10 Super Nova 36 4 8 24 24:81 20
Promotion - Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa Conference League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Relegation - Optibet Virsliga 2022 (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2023 (Main)