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Spezia vs Gubbio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Spezia host Gubbio in the Serie C - Group B. This one's hard to separate. Gubbio have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while Spezia have conceded 1.28 and scored 1.66. Past meetings favor Spezia slightly — 1-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 29, 2016, ending 2:2. The numbers (2.00 xG vs 1.13) point toward Spezia. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

67%
Spezia
15%
Draws
18%
Gubbio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Spezia average 1.66 goals a game right now, well clear of Gubbio's 1.2.
  • Spezia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Spezia Clean Sheet 20%
Gubbio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spezia Gubbio
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.66 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2016 Club Friendly
Gubbio vs Spezia
2:2
Jan 23, 2011 Lega Pro C1/A
Gubbio vs Spezia
2:1
Sep 12, 2010 Lega Pro C1/A
Spezia vs Gubbio
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spezia 85 / 100
Gubbio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spezia Gubbio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spezia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spezia has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Spezia scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Gubbio let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Spezia VS Gubbio
2.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Spezia

(Home)
04 Oct
Reggiana
0 : 1
Spezia
27 Sept
Pescara
1 : 2
Spezia
21 Sept
Spezia
3 : 1
Vis Pesaro
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
12 Sept
Spezia
2 : 0
Livorno
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Gubbio

(Away)
03 Oct
Gubbio
1 : 3
Perugia
27 Sept
Ravenna
2 : 0
Gubbio
20 Sept
Gubbio
0 : 2
Ostiamare
16 Sept
Pescara
1 : 1
Gubbio
12 Sept
Gubbio
3 : 1
Latina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 8 7 1 0 15:4 22
2 Ravenna 8 5 2 1 13:4 17
3 Grosseto 8 4 3 1 14:7 15
4 Reggiana 8 4 2 2 12:7 14
5 Livorno 8 4 2 2 10:9 14
6 Perugia 8 4 1 3 9:12 13
7 Guidonia 1937 8 3 3 2 10:7 12
8 Campobasso 8 3 3 2 12:11 12
9 Sassari Torres 8 3 3 2 9:9 12
10 Pescara 8 3 2 3 10:11 11
11 Forli FC 8 2 4 2 13:12 10
12 Atalanta U23 6 3 0 3 7:9 9
13 Ostiamare 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
14 Vado 8 2 2 4 6:8 8
15 Pineto 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
16 Gubbio 8 2 1 5 10:16 7
17 Latina 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
18 Pianese 8 1 3 4 6:10 6
19 Sambenedettese 8 1 2 5 11:14 5
20 Vis Pesaro 7 1 1 5 8:16 4
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)