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Spezia vs Vado - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia
Sun, Nov 15, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Spezia host Vado in the Serie C - Group B. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Vado have shipped 1.28 goals a game lately, while Spezia have conceded 1.24 and scored 1.86. Past meetings favor Spezia slightly — 1-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 2, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 0.88, favoring Spezia. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Spezia
30%
Draws
32%
Vado
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Spezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Spezia have won more games recently than Vado.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Spezia Clean Sheet 20%
Vado Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spezia Vado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.86 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 Coppa Italia Serie C
Spezia vs Vado
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spezia 31 / 100
Vado 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spezia Vado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spezia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spezia scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Solid form: Spezia remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Vado let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Spezia VS Vado
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Spezia

(Home)
01 Nov
Spezia
2 : 1
Atalanta U23
28 Oct
Spezia
2 : 1
Livorno
24 Oct
Spezia
1 : 1
Latina
18 Oct
Ravenna
0 : 1
Spezia
10 Oct
Spezia
2 : 0
Gubbio
Page 1 of 6

Vado

(Away)
31 Oct
Vado
2 : 2
Grosseto
23 Oct
Ostiamare
1 : 2
Vado
17 Oct
Vado
2 : 2
Sambenedettese
11 Oct
Perugia
0 : 2
Vado
03 Oct
Vado
1 : 0
Forli FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 12 10 2 0 21:6 32
2 Ravenna 12 8 2 2 22:7 26
3 Grosseto 12 6 5 1 25:15 23
4 Reggiana 12 6 2 4 16:11 20
5 Pescara 12 5 4 3 15:13 19
6 Livorno 12 5 4 3 17:16 19
7 Sassari Torres 12 5 4 3 13:12 19
8 Campobasso 12 5 3 4 18:20 18
9 Guidonia 1937 12 4 5 3 15:13 17
10 Perugia 12 5 2 5 16:18 17
11 Vado 12 4 4 4 14:13 16
12 Latina 12 3 6 3 12:12 15
13 Atalanta U23 12 5 0 7 14:18 15
14 Pineto 12 3 5 4 10:13 14
15 Forli FC 12 2 6 4 16:18 12
16 Sambenedettese 12 2 4 6 16:20 10
17 Pianese 12 1 7 4 7:11 10
18 Ostiamare 12 2 3 7 10:15 9
19 Gubbio 12 2 2 8 10:21 8
20 Vis Pesaro 12 1 2 9 11:26 5
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)