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Sport Recife vs Maranhao Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Lucas Santos
26' Event
de Pena C.
(Penalty)
26'
Railson

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 5-0. This leg finished 5-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sport Recife
15%
Draws
45%
Maranhao
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sport Recife lately — more wins on the board than Maranhao.
  • Win probability leans Maranhao's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Sport Recife have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sport Recife, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 18%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Recife Maranhao
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.53 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.09 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Sport Recife vs Maranhao
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sport Recife Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Maia
1 Goals
Assists Leader Iury Castilho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.55

Maranhao Compare

Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Recife 23 / 100
Maranhao 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Recife Maranhao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sport Recife found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Maranhao conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Sport Recife stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sport Recife VS Maranhao
1.38 Goals Scored 1.6
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.8
88% Over 1.5 60%
63% Over 2.5 60%
0% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Recife

(Home)
01 Oct
Athletic Club
1 : 2
Sport Recife
26 Sept
Nautico
3 : 1
Sport Recife
19 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 1
EC Juventude
16 Sept
CRB
2 : 1
Sport Recife
11 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
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Maranhao

(Away)
29 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 1
Maranhao
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
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