Sport Picks

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Sport Recife vs Maranhao

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Lucas Santos
26' Event
de Pena C.
(Penalty)
26'
Railson

AI Match Summary

Sport Recife in this Copa do Nordeste tie, finishing 5-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sport Recife
30%
Draws
34%
Maranhao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sport Recife

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sport Recife lately — more wins on the board than Maranhao.
  • Win probability leans Sport Recife's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Sport Recife have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sport Recife, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 20%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Recife Maranhao
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 11 8
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 0.75 0.25
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Sport Recife vs Maranhao
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sport Recife Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Maia
1 Goals
Assists Leader Iury Castilho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Maranhao Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Recife 36 / 100
Maranhao 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Recife Maranhao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sport Recife found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Maranhao conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Sport Recife stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sport Recife VS Maranhao
0.75 Goals Scored 0.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 13%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Recife

(Home)
27 Jul
Sport Recife
1 : 1
Cuiaba
22 Jul
Goias
1 : 1
Sport Recife
18 Jul
Sport Recife
2 : 2
Operario-PR
10 Jul
Sport Recife
3 : 3
Botafogo SP
04 Jul
Criciuma
1 : 0
Sport Recife
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Maranhao

(Away)
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Maranhao
2 : 1
Ypiranga FC
04 Jul
Maranhao
0 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
28 Jun
Ituano
0 : 0
Maranhao
21 Jun
Maranhao
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
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