Sport Picks

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Sport Recife vs Retro

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Ze Gabriel
46'
Sub
Danillo In: Murilo
Out: Danillo
46'
Sub
Lira W. In: Cacau
Out: Lira W.

AI Match Summary

Sport Recife in this Copa do Nordeste tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sport Recife
44%
Draws
20%
Retro
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sport Recife lately — more wins on the board than Retro.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Sport Recife have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sport Recife, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sport Recife have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 22%
Retro Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Recife Retro
Matches Played 36 33
Wins 18 12
Draws 12 9
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.60

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Sport Recife vs Retro
3:0
Feb 21, 2026 Pernambucano
Sport Recife vs Retro
3:2
Feb 12, 2026 Pernambucano
Retro vs Sport Recife
0:1
Jan 15, 2026 Pernambucano
Sport Recife vs Retro
2:0
Apr 3, 2025 Pernambucano
Sport Recife vs Retro
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sport Recife Compare

Top Goalscorer Iury Castilho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chrystian Barletta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Retro Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Recife 37 / 100
Retro 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Recife Retro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RET Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sport Recife's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

Retro let in goals in 82% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Sport Recife stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sport Recife VS Retro
1.25 Goals Scored 1.2
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.6
75% Over 1.5 60%
38% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Recife

(Home)
22 Jul
Goias
1 : 1
Sport Recife
18 Jul
Sport Recife
2 : 2
Operario-PR
10 Jul
Sport Recife
3 : 3
Botafogo SP
04 Jul
Criciuma
1 : 0
Sport Recife
28 Jun
Fortaleza
2 : 1
Sport Recife
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Retro

(Away)
14 Jun
Retro
3 : 0
Treze PB
31 May
Serra Branca
0 : 0
Retro
24 May
Retro
1 : 1
Lagarto
17 May
Retro
2 : 1
Decisao
09 May
Sergipe
1 : 0
Retro
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