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Sport Sebaco vs San Marcos

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Sun, Jul 26, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sport Sebaco host San Marcos in the Liga Primera. This has Sport Sebaco written all over it on paper. Sport Sebaco have averaged 1.38 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against San Marcos's 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (0.94 - 0.88) back Sport Sebaco to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Sport Sebaco
17%
Draws
13%
San Marcos
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Sport Sebaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sport Sebaco come out ahead of San Marcos on wins alone.
  • Model gives Sport Sebaco a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Sport Sebaco Clean Sheet 20%
San Marcos Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sport Sebaco San Marcos
Matches Played 30 1
Wins 12 0
Draws 4 1
Losses 14 0
Goals Scored 1.38 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sport Sebaco 67 / 100
San Marcos 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sport Sebaco San Marcos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SPO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: San Marcos conceded in 100% of 1 recent games.

Sport Sebaco found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Sport Sebaco stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sport Sebaco VS San Marcos
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sport Sebaco

(Home)
19 Jul
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Sport Sebaco
12 Jul
Sport Sebaco
1 : 1
Diriangen
05 Jul
Diriangen
1 : 2
Sport Sebaco
25 Apr
UNAN-Managua
1 : 3
Sport Sebaco
20 Apr
Sport Sebaco
2 : 3
Esteli
Page 1 of 6

San Marcos

(Away)
18 Jul
Diriangen
1 : 1
San Marcos

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sport Sebaco11003:03
2Managua FC11002:13
3Jalapa11001:03
4Diriangen10101:11
5Esteli10101:11
6UNAN-Managua10101:11
7San Marcos10101:11
8Rancho Santana10011:20
9Walter Ferreti10010:10
10Matagalpa10010:30
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)