Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Guivin Tanta J.
Assist: Narvaez J.
18'
Yotun Y.
24'
Cristiano

AI Match Summary

The Liga 1 game between Sporting Cristal and AD Tarma finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sporting Cristal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Sporting Cristal
15%
Draws
17%
AD Tarma
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sporting Cristal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Sporting Cristal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Sporting Cristal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 20%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Cristal AD Tarma
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.6 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Copa de la Liga
AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal
0:1
May 24, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal
3:2
May 17, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
2:1
Jul 12, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Cristal Compare

Top Goalscorer Yotun Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cazonatti G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Guivin Tanta J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Cristal 85 / 100
AD Tarma 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Cristal AD Tarma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sporting Cristal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sporting Cristal scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

AD Tarma let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Sporting Cristal stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Cristal VS AD Tarma
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Cristal

(Home)
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
19 Sept
Sporting Cristal
3 : 1
Atletico Grau
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
06 Sept
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
Los Chankas
30 Aug
Sport Boys
1 : 0
Sporting Cristal
Page 1 of 6

AD Tarma

(Away)
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3
Sport Huancayo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A. Lima 17 12 4 1 30:8 40
2 Los Chankas 17 10 4 3 25:21 34
3 Cienciano 17 10 3 4 34:22 33
4 Universitario de Deportes 17 8 5 4 24:15 29
5 FBC Melgar 17 8 4 5 29:20 28
6 Cusco 17 8 3 6 21:24 27
7 Deportivo Garcilaso 17 7 5 5 21:18 26
8 Alianza Atl. 17 5 6 6 20:18 21
9 Comerciantes Unidos 17 5 6 6 18:20 21
10 AD Tarma 17 5 5 7 22:21 20
11 Sport Boys 17 5 5 7 15:19 20
12 Sporting Cristal 17 5 4 8 28:30 19
13 Cajamarca 17 4 6 7 21:26 18
14 Moquegua 17 5 3 9 17:24 18
15 FC Cajamarca 17 4 5 8 23:28 17
16 Atletico Grau 17 4 4 9 12:18 16
17 Sport Huancayo 17 4 4 9 21:31 16
18 Juan Pablo II 17 4 4 9 22:40 16
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)