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Sporting Jax W vs Lexington W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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USL Super League Women Hodges Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
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Match Events

59' Event
Weinert M.
Assist: Mccain A.
71'
Sub
Weinert M. In: Johnson H.
Out: Weinert M.
71'
Sub
Griffith S. In: White H.
Out: Griffith S.

AI Match Summary

Lexington W in this USL Super League Women matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lexington W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Sporting Jax W
30%
Draws
41%
Lexington W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lexington W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Lexington W have won more games recently than Sporting Jax W.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Lexington W have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sporting Jax W Clean Sheet 15%
Lexington W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Jax W Lexington W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 17
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.79 1.79
Goals Conceded 1 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 USL Super League Women
Sporting Jax W vs Lexington W
0:1
Apr 25, 2026 USL Super League Women
Sporting Jax W vs Lexington W
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Sporting Jax W
0:3
Oct 31, 2025 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Sporting Jax W
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sporting Jax W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Lexington W Compare

Top Goalscorer Weinert M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Jax W 35 / 100
Lexington W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Jax W Lexington W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lexington W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sporting Jax W scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Defensive concern: Lexington W conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Sporting Jax W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Jax W VS Lexington W
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Jax W

(Home)
26 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
3 : 3
Sporting Jax W
20 Sept
Sporting Jax W
0 : 1
Lexington W
13 Sept
Brooklyn W
3 : 2
Sporting Jax W
04 Sept
DC Power W
1 : 1
Sporting Jax W
29 Aug
Sporting Jax W
2 : 0
Dallas Trinity W
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Lexington W

(Away)
04 Oct
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 1
Lexington W
25 Sept
Lexington W
3 : 0
Dallas Trinity W
20 Sept
Sporting Jax W
0 : 1
Lexington W
11 Sept
Lexington W
0 : 1
Carolina Ascent W
29 Aug
Lexington W
1 : 2
DC Power W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carolina Ascent W 7 5 1 1 13:6 16
2 DC Power W 7 3 2 2 11:8 11
3 Sporting Jax W 7 3 2 2 12:10 11
4 Lexington W 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
5 Dallas Trinity W 7 3 1 3 9:11 10
6 Tampa Bay Sun W 6 2 3 1 9:8 9
7 Brooklyn W 7 2 0 5 5:14 6
8 Fort Lauderdale United W 7 1 0 6 4:11 3
Promotion - USL Super League Women (Play Offs)