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Sporting Liesti vs Progresul Fundulea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Romania Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 4
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sporting Liesti host Progresul Fundulea in the Liga 3 - Seria 4. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Progresul Fundulea have shipped 1.48 goals a game lately, while Sporting Liesti have conceded 1.88 and scored 2.62. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (2.38 xG vs 2.00) point toward Sporting Liesti. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Sporting Liesti
15%
Draws
42%
Progresul Fundulea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sporting Liesti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Progresul Fundulea haven't matched Sporting Liesti's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Sporting Liesti Clean Sheet 10%
Progresul Fundulea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sporting Liesti Progresul Fundulea
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 21 16
Draws 2 1
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 2.62 2.28
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sporting Liesti 29 / 100
Progresul Fundulea 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sporting Liesti Progresul Fundulea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sporting Liesti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sporting Liesti scored in 85% of their last 34 outings.

Progresul Fundulea let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Progresul Fundulea lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Sporting Liesti went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sporting Liesti VS Progresul Fundulea
3 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sporting Liesti

(Home)
03 Oct
Agricola Borcea
5 : 3
Sporting Liesti
26 Sept
Sporting Liesti
6 : 1
Otelul 2
23 Sept
Calarasi
3 : 2
Sporting Liesti
19 Sept
Sporting Liesti
5 : 4
Inainte Modelu
12 Sept
Agigea
2 : 0
Sporting Liesti
Page 1 of 7

Progresul Fundulea

(Away)
03 Oct
Progresul Fundulea
2 : 1
Gloria Baneasa
26 Sept
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2 : 1
Progresul Fundulea
23 Sept
Progresul Fundulea
4 : 0
Axiopolis Cernavoda
19 Sept
Unirea Branistea
4 : 2
Progresul Fundulea
12 Sept
Agricola Borcea
4 : 2
Progresul Fundulea
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Agricola Borcea 7 6 0 1 19:9 18
2 Agigea 7 4 2 1 11:6 14
3 Inainte Modelu 7 4 1 2 15:11 13
4 Axiopolis Cernavoda 7 4 1 2 15:12 13
5 Sporting Liesti 7 4 0 3 24:16 12
6 Progresul Fundulea 7 4 0 3 16:12 12
7 Recolta Gheorghe Doja 7 4 0 3 13:14 12
8 Calarasi 7 3 1 3 7:10 10
9 Unirea Branistea 7 3 0 4 13:12 9
10 Gloria Baneasa 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
11 Portul Constanta 7 1 0 6 11:18 3
12 Otelul 2 7 1 0 6 6:20 3
Promotion - Liga 3 - Promotion Group 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Liga 3 - Seria 4 (Relegation Group)