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Sportivo Trinidense vs Recoleta

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Martín Torres
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sportivo Trinidense play Recoleta in the Copa de Primera. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sportivo Trinidense averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Recoleta averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. In past meetings, Sportivo Trinidense won 3, Recoleta won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 23, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Sportivo Trinidense and 1.46 for Recoleta. This points to a Sportivo Trinidense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Sportivo Trinidense
31%
Draws
31%
Recoleta
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Sportivo Trinidense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Sportivo Trinidense picked up more points recently compared to Recoleta.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.46 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Sportivo Trinidense Clean Sheet 16%
Recoleta Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sportivo Trinidense Recoleta
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 10
Draws 12 10
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.17 1.45
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.57 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.43 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Trinidense vs Recoleta
3:2
Jan 23, 2026 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Trinidense vs Recoleta
2:3
Jul 4, 2025 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense
2:4
May 26, 2025 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sportivo Trinidense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.79

Recoleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Wlk A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ortiz R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sportivo Trinidense 37 / 100
Recoleta 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sportivo Trinidense Recoleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sportivo Trinidense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sportivo Trinidense attacking → ← attacking Recoleta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sportivo Trinidense scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Recoleta let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Sportivo Trinidense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Recoleta lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 40
1.57 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.43 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115