Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Derde Divisie 2025/2026 game between Sportlust and Excelsior 31 finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sportlust.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sportlust
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Excelsior 31 carry the better recent record into this one.
- Sportlust are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Regular Derde Divisie 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Sportlust Clean Sheet 10%
Excelsior 31 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sportlust | Excelsior 31 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 14 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 Derde Divisie
Sportlust vs Excelsior 31
3:0
Oct 25, 2025 Derde Divisie
Excelsior 31 vs Sportlust
1:2
Apr 12, 2025 Derde Divisie
Excelsior 31 vs Sportlust
1:3
Nov 9, 2024 Derde Divisie
Sportlust vs Excelsior 31
1:3
Mar 4, 2023 Derde Divisie
Sportlust vs Excelsior 31
0:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sportlust 38 / 100
Excelsior 31 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sportlust Excelsior 31
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sportlust Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Excelsior 31 let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Sportlust went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Sportlust scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Sportlust VS Excelsior 31
2 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Sportlust
(Home) 12 Sept
HVV Hollandia
2 : 4 Sportlust
05 Sept
Sportlust
2 : 2 VV Hoogeveen
01 Sept
Sportlust
3 : 1 Blauw Geel
29 Aug
TEC
1 : 2 Sportlust
22 Aug
Sportlust
1 : 1 Purmersteijn
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Sportlust
2 : 2 VV Hoogeveen
01 Sept
Sportlust
3 : 1 Blauw Geel
22 Aug
Sportlust
1 : 1 Purmersteijn
16 May
Sportlust
0 : 2 Sparta Nijkerk
09 May
Sportlust
0 : 2 USV Hercules
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Excelsior 31
(Away) 12 Sept
Excelsior 31
1 : 1 Purmersteijn
05 Sept
VV Scherpenzeel
3 : 1 Excelsior 31
01 Sept
Harkemase Boys
0 : 1 Excelsior 31
29 Aug
Excelsior 31
4 : 0 SVZW Wierden
22 Aug
Staphorst
2 : 4 Excelsior 31
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
VV Scherpenzeel
3 : 1 Excelsior 31
01 Sept
Harkemase Boys
0 : 1 Excelsior 31
22 Aug
Staphorst
2 : 4 Excelsior 31
23 May
Urk
1 : 2 Excelsior 31
09 May
TEC
1 : 1 Excelsior 31
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rohda Raalte | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 63:36 | 67 |
| 2 | DVS '33 Ermelo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 59:39 | 62 |
| 3 | Sparta Nijkerk | 34 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 84:43 | 61 |
| 4 | ADO 20 Heemskerk | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 46:36 | 60 |
| 5 | Genemuiden | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 61:52 | 56 |
| 6 | Staphorst | 34 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 63:53 | 54 |
| 7 | Harkemase Boys | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 56:44 | 52 |
| 8 | VV DOVO | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 53:43 | 52 |
| 9 | Eemdijk | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 68:59 | 50 |
| 10 | VV Scherpenzeel | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 59:49 | 49 |
| 11 | VV Hoogeveen | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 54:64 | 48 |
| 12 | Sportlust | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 54:52 | 47 |
| 13 | USV Hercules | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 53:57 | 44 |
| 14 | Excelsior 31 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 18 | 49:57 | 40 |
| 15 | Huizen | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 51:63 | 40 |
| 16 | TEC | 34 | 12 | 4 | 18 | 48:64 | 40 |
| 17 | Urk | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 61:97 | 31 |
| 18 | HSC '21 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 35:109 | 8 |
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VV Kloetinge | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 68:43 | 73 |
| 2 | Lisse | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 67:33 | 68 |
| 3 | VVSB | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 70:37 | 68 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63:39 | 64 |
| 5 | Gemert | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 71:46 | 61 |
| 6 | Roosendaal | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 71:58 | 54 |
| 7 | TOGB | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 64:61 | 53 |
| 8 | VV Zwaluwen | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 61:48 | 51 |
| 9 | Blauw Geel | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 53:51 | 48 |
| 10 | VV Noordwijk | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 56:51 | 44 |
| 11 | RKSV UDI 19 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 57:74 | 39 |
| 12 | UNA | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 51:59 | 38 |
| 13 | GOES | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 43:61 | 37 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 45:64 | 36 |
| 15 | SteDoCo | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 35:69 | 34 |
| 16 | SVV Scheveningen | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 49:65 | 32 |
| 17 | Meerssen | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 47:70 | 31 |
| 18 | ASWH | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 45:87 | 25 |
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
