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Sri Lanka vs Maldives

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Naiz H.
34' Event
Mahudhee Hussain I.
90' Event
Fasir A.

AI Match Summary

Maldives in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maldives.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Sri Lanka
15%
Draws
7%
Maldives
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sri Lanka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sri Lanka lately — more wins on the board than Maldives.
  • Sri Lanka are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Sri Lanka Clean Sheet 68%
Maldives Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sri Lanka Maldives
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 5 3
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
Sri Lanka vs Maldives
1:1
Sep 6, 2025 Friendly International
Sri Lanka vs Maldives
0:3
Jun 14, 2022 Asian Cup
Maldives vs Sri Lanka
1:0
Nov 14, 2021 Friendly International
Maldives vs Sri Lanka
0:0
Nov 9, 2021 Friendly International
Sri Lanka vs Maldives
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sri Lanka Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Maldives Compare

Top Goalscorer Naiz H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mahudhee Hussain I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sri Lanka 95 / 100
Maldives 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sri Lanka Maldives

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sri Lanka Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldives let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Sri Lanka stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Maldives's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sri Lanka VS Maldives
1.75 Goals Scored 0.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sri Lanka

(Home)
02 Oct
Mauritius
3 : 0
Sri Lanka
30 Sept
Seychelles
0 : 2
Sri Lanka
27 Sept
Seychelles
0 : 3
Sri Lanka
08 Jun
Sri Lanka
4 : 1
Bhutan
31 Mar
Chinese Taipei
1 : 3
Sri Lanka
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Maldives

(Away)
01 Oct
Maldives
0 : 6
Lebanon
28 Sept
Kyrgyzstan
5 : 0
Maldives
24 Sept
China
3 : 0
Maldives
07 Jun
Maldives
1 : 1
Bangladesh U23
04 Jun
Maldives
0 : 3
Pakistan
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