Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

SS Nola 1925 play Citta di Fasano in the Serie D - Group H. It looks like a close match. Recently, SS Nola 1925 averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Citta di Fasano averaged 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded. In past meetings, SS Nola 1925 won 1, Citta di Fasano won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 25, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for SS Nola 1925 and 1.63 for Citta di Fasano. This points to a Citta di Fasano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

SS Nola 1925

21%

Draws

47%

Citta di Fasano

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Citta di Fasano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

SS Nola 1925 picked up more points recently compared to Citta di Fasano.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

SS Nola 1925 Clean Sheet 14%

Citta di Fasano Clean Sheet 20%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	SS Nola 1925	Citta di Fasano
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	9	15
Draws	7	6
Losses	14	10
Goals Scored	1.17	1.52
Goals Conceded	1.47	1.26
Expected Goals (xG)	0.38	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group H

SS Nola 1925 vs Citta di Fasano

Possession: 55% - 60% Cards: 4 - 4

1:2

Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano vs SS Nola 1925

Possession: 49% - 46% Cards: 0 - 2

3:0

Apr 24, 2022 Serie D - Group H

SS Nola 1925 vs Citta di Fasano

Possession: 52% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Dec 8, 2021 Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano vs SS Nola 1925

Possession: 56% - 41% Cards: 3 - 4

1:1

Mar 24, 2019 Serie D - Group H

Citta di Fasano vs SS Nola 1925

Possession: 58% - 47% Cards: 2 - 2

4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SS Nola 1925 Compare

Top Goalscorer Peluso M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.29

Avg xA / game 0.19

Citta di Fasano Compare

Top Goalscorer Salzano A.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SS Nola 1925 32 / 100

Citta di Fasano 46 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

SS Nola 1925 Citta di Fasano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Citta di Fasano or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SS Nola 1925 attacking → ← attacking Citta di Fasano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SS Nola 1925 scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Citta di Fasano let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

SS Nola 1925 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Citta di Fasano lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 51

0.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barletta	34	20	10	4	54:20	70
2	Martina Calcio	34	18	8	8	47:30	62
3	Citta di Fasano	34	18	8	8	51:35	62
4	Paganese	34	17	7	10	36:32	58
5	A.C.D. Nardo	34	14	13	7	40:27	55
6	Gravina	34	16	7	11	50:40	55
7	Afragolese	34	13	10	11	45:46	49
8	Fidelis Andria	34	13	9	12	35:28	48
9	Virtus Francavilla	34	12	12	10	45:40	48
10	Real Normanna	34	10	13	11	27:26	43
11	Francavilla	34	11	10	13	39:38	43
12	Manfredonia	34	11	10	13	34:39	43
13	Sarnese	34	9	14	11	51:49	41
14	SS Nola 1925	34	11	8	15	42:50	41
15	Heraclea	34	10	8	16	31:39	38
16	Pompei	34	9	7	18	26:38	34
17	Ferrandina	34	7	9	18	21:43	30
18	Acerrana	34	3	5	26	20:74	14