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St Albans vs South Melbourne Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia Australia

NPL Victoria Churchill Reserve, Melbourne
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Mikkola M.
48' Event
Bonada N.
65' Event
Eliopoulos J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Victoria game between St Albans and South Melbourne finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward South Melbourne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
St Albans
15%
Draws
40%
South Melbourne
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: St Albans

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • St Albans haven't matched South Melbourne's recent run of results.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on St Albans taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
St Albans Clean Sheet 13%
South Melbourne Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St Albans South Melbourne
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 9 21
Draws 8 3
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.3 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.39 1.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 NPL Victoria
South Melbourne vs St Albans
2:0
Apr 24, 2026 NPL Victoria
St Albans vs South Melbourne
0:4
Jun 6, 2025 NPL Victoria
St Albans vs South Melbourne
2:2
Mar 3, 2025 NPL Victoria
South Melbourne vs St Albans
0:3
Aug 18, 2024 NPL Victoria
South Melbourne vs St Albans
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St Albans Compare

Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.69

South Melbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Mikkola M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bonada N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.5
Avg xA / game 0.92

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St Albans 66 / 100
South Melbourne 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St Albans South Melbourne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St Albans Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

St Albans's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

South Melbourne's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 37 matches.

St Albans has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

St Albans VS South Melbourne
2.14 Goals Scored 2
1.29 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

St Albans

(Home)
29 Aug
St Albans
6 : 0
Dandenong Thunder
21 Aug
Green Gully
1 : 2
St Albans
14 Aug
St Albans
1 : 1
Bentleigh Greens
02 Aug
South Melbourne
2 : 0
St Albans
24 Jul
St Albans
3 : 2
Hume City
Page 1 of 6

South Melbourne

(Away)
15 Sept
South Melbourne
3 : 1
Queensland Lions
11 Sept
Oakleigh Cannons
2 : 1
South Melbourne
06 Sept
South Melbourne
2 : 1
Heidelberg Utd
29 Aug
George Cross
1 : 0
South Melbourne
26 Aug
Preston Lions
1 : 2
South Melbourne
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Oakleigh Cannons 26 16 6 4 56:24 54
2 Hume City 26 15 4 7 51:36 49
3 Avondale FC 26 15 2 9 65:34 47
4 South Melbourne 26 13 2 11 39:36 41
5 Heidelberg Utd 26 11 7 8 42:34 40
6 Preston Lions 26 15 6 5 41:19 39
7 George Cross 26 9 11 6 35:34 38
8 St Albans 26 9 7 10 36:43 34
9 Dandenong City SC 26 10 7 9 35:31 33
10 Melbourne City U21 26 8 6 12 42:42 30
11 Altona Magic 26 7 7 12 28:42 28
12 Bentleigh Greens 26 6 6 14 27:51 24
13 Green Gully 26 4 6 16 23:52 18
14 Dandenong Thunder 26 4 3 19 23:65 15
Promotion - NPL Victoria (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Victoria (Play Offs)