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St. Andrews vs Luqa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2023/2024
Sun, May 5, 2024
1 - 0
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

118' Event
Nyetam B.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with St. Andrews advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
St. Andrews
35%
Draws
32%
Luqa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • St. Andrews carry the better recent record into this one.
  • St. Andrews are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • St. Andrews have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor St. Andrews, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
St. Andrews Clean Sheet 20%
Luqa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St. Andrews Luqa
Matches Played 42 30
Wins 18 7
Draws 9 7
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.45 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Challenge League
St. Andrews vs Luqa
1:0
Apr 21, 2024 Challenge League
Luqa vs St. Andrews
2:2
Dec 17, 2023 Challenge League
Luqa vs St. Andrews
2:2
Mar 5, 2022 Challenge League
Luqa vs St. Andrews
0:2
Nov 28, 2021 Challenge League
St. Andrews vs Luqa
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St. Andrews Compare

Top Goalscorer Nyetam B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Luqa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St. Andrews 49 / 100
Luqa 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St. Andrews Luqa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Andrews Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luqa let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

St. Andrews scored in 71% of their last 42 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Luqa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

St. Andrews VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

St. Andrews

(Home)
18 Sept
St. Andrews
1 : 1
Santa Lucia
13 Sept
Victoria Hotspurs
3 : 0
St. Andrews
19 Apr
Pieta
2 : 2
St. Andrews
11 Apr
St. Andrews
0 : 1
Swieqi
04 Apr
St. Andrews
1 : 3
Birzebbuga
Page 1 of 9

Luqa

(Away)
05 May
St. Andrews
1 : 0
Luqa
28 Apr
Tarxien
3 : 3
Luqa
21 Apr
Luqa
2 : 2
St. Andrews
14 Apr
Zebbug
4 : 0
Luqa
06 Apr
Luqa
0 : 4
Swieqi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
St. Andrews 1
Luqa 0