Sport Picks

Stadium Background

St Etienne vs Rodez

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne
Fri, May 15, 2026
1 - 0
06:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

60'
Sub
Duffus J. In: Moueffek A.
Out: Duffus J.
64'
Kante A.
67'
Sub
Ponti R. In: Jean-Lambert E.
Out: Ponti R.

AI Match Summary

St Etienne in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
St Etienne
22%
Draws
60%
Rodez
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Rodez

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Rodez have won more games recently than St Etienne.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Rodez taking it.
  • Rodez arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor St Etienne, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
St Etienne Clean Sheet 12%
Rodez Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St Etienne Rodez
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 17
Draws 6 10
Losses 10 2
Goals Scored 1.25 2
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Ligue 1
St Etienne vs Rodez
1:0
May 2, 2026 Ligue 2
Rodez vs St Etienne
2:1
Aug 16, 2025 Ligue 2
St Etienne vs Rodez
4:0
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Rodez vs St Etienne
0:0
May 24, 2024 Ligue 1
St Etienne vs Rodez
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St Etienne 19 / 100
Rodez 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St Etienne Rodez

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ROD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rodez's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

St Etienne scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

St Etienne has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

St Etienne VS Rodez
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

St Etienne

(Home)
29 Jul
St Etienne
4 : 0
Lausanne
22 Jul
Rangers
2 : 1
St Etienne
18 Jul
Servette
1 : 0
St Etienne
11 Jul
St Etienne
2 : 2
Biel
29 May
Nice
4 : 1
St Etienne
Page 1 of 6

Rodez

(Away)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
22 Jul
Rodez
2 : 1
Nimes
17 Jul
Rodez
4 : 1
Cannes
10 Jul
Rodez
5 : 3
Bastia
15 May
St Etienne
1 : 0
Rodez
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nice-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
St Etienne-
TBD-
Red Star2
Rodez3
Semi-finals
Nice-
TBD-
St Etienne1
Rodez0
Final
Nice4
St Etienne1