Sport Picks

Stadium Background

St Johnstone vs Motherwell

Scotland Scotland

League Cup 2025/2026 McDiarmid Park, Perth
Sat, Aug 16, 2025
0 - 1
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Diabate C.
26'
Gullan J.
41'
Sprangler S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Motherwell advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
St Johnstone
30%
Draws
31%
Motherwell
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: St Johnstone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • St Johnstone carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on St Johnstone taking it.
  • St Johnstone have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor St Johnstone, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
St Johnstone Clean Sheet 68%
Motherwell Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric St Johnstone Motherwell
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 10
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.77 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.34
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2025 League Cup
St Johnstone vs Motherwell
0:1
Apr 26, 2025 Premiership
Motherwell vs St Johnstone
3:2
Jan 25, 2025 Premiership
St Johnstone vs Motherwell
2:1
Jan 18, 2025 Scottish Cup
St Johnstone vs Motherwell
1:0
Nov 9, 2024 Premiership
Motherwell vs St Johnstone
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

St Johnstone Compare

Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64

Motherwell Compare

Top Goalscorer Fadinger L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

St Johnstone 68 / 100
Motherwell 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
St Johnstone Motherwell

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St Johnstone Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St Johnstone's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Motherwell has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: St Johnstone stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

St Johnstone VS Motherwell
1.29 Goals Scored 1.25
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 50%
14% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

St Johnstone

(Home)
19 Sept
St Johnstone
1 : 1
Falkirk
09 Sept
St Johnstone
0 : 1
Celtic
06 Sept
St Johnstone
2 : 1
Hibernian
02 Sept
Dundee FC
1 : 1
St Johnstone
29 Aug
Hearts
2 : 1
St Johnstone
Page 1 of 6

Motherwell

(Away)
19 Sept
Dundee FC
2 : 1
Motherwell
15 Sept
Motherwell
0 : 4
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Rangers
1 : 0
Motherwell
02 Sept
Motherwell
3 : 0
Dundee Utd
30 Aug
St. Mirren
3 : 3
Motherwell
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Morton 0
Aberdeen 3
St Johnstone 0
Motherwell 1
Kilmarnock 2
Dundee Utd 1
St. Mirren 2
Hearts 1
Partick 2
Ayr 0
Celtic 4
Falkirk 1
Rangers 4
Alloa 2
Livingston 0
Hibernian 2
Quarter-finals
Aberdeen 0
Motherwell 1
Kilmarnock 2
St. Mirren 3
Partick 0
Celtic 4
Rangers 2
Hibernian 0
Semi-finals
Motherwell 1
St. Mirren 4
Celtic 3
Rangers 1
Final
St. Mirren 3
Celtic 1