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Stade Tunisien vs Etoile Sahel

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 Stade Hedi-Enneifer
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Camara B.
87' Event
Smichi N.
Assist: Ben Seghaier M.

AI Match Summary

Stade Tunisien host Etoile Sahel in the Ligue Professionnelle 1. Little to choose between these two on current form. Stade Tunisien have averaged 1.13 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Etoile Sahel's 1.5 scored and 1.25 conceded. Head-to-head, Stade Tunisien have won 2 to Etoile Sahel's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Mar 8, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 1.38) point toward Stade Tunisien. Stade Tunisien in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Stade Tunisien
33%
Draws
27%
Etoile Sahel
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Stade Tunisien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Etoile Sahel has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Stade Tunisien.
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Stade Tunisien.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Ligue Professionnelle 1 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Stade Tunisien Clean Sheet 68%
Etoile Sahel Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stade Tunisien Etoile Sahel
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 12 14
Draws 12 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Stade Tunisien vs Etoile Sahel
1:1
Oct 1, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Stade Tunisien
1:1
May 18, 2025 Tunisia Cup
Etoile Sahel vs Stade Tunisien
0:1
Feb 19, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Stade Tunisien vs Etoile Sahel
1:3
Oct 20, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Stade Tunisien
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stade Tunisien Compare

Top Goalscorer Camara B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Etoile Sahel Compare

Top Goalscorer Smichi N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stade Tunisien 50 / 100
Etoile Sahel 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stade Tunisien Etoile Sahel

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick STA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stade Tunisien scored in 53% of their last 32 games.

Etoile Sahel let in goals in 52% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Stade Tunisien went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Etoile Sahel lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stade Tunisien VS Etoile Sahel
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Club Africain30199243:1066
2Esperance Tunis30189345:1163
3CS Sfaxien30188444:1362
4Stade Tunisien301212628:1448
5Monastir301112728:1945
6Zarzis301181130:2841
7Etoile Sahel301181128:3041
8Metlaoui30913819:2540
9Jeunesse Sportive301061424:3336
10Ben Guerdane308111118:2235
11AS Marsa301121726:3335
12CA Bizertin30891318:2933
13Olympique Beja30951618:3932
14JS Kairouan30941720:4131
15Soliman30691515:3127
16AS Gabes30391811:3718