Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Derde Divisie 2025/2026 game between Staphorst and DVS '33 Ermelo finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Staphorst.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
35%
19%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Staphorst
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- DVS '33 Ermelo have managed 1.57 goals a game lately — Staphorst are scoring more at 1.75.
- Staphorst are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Staphorst Clean Sheet 18%
DVS '33 Ermelo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Staphorst | DVS '33 Ermelo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.71 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 14, 2026 Derde Divisie
Staphorst vs DVS '33 Ermelo
4:1
Oct 11, 2025 Derde Divisie
DVS '33 Ermelo vs Staphorst
3:1
May 25, 2024 Derde Divisie
DVS '33 Ermelo vs Staphorst
1:1
Dec 16, 2023 Derde Divisie
Staphorst vs DVS '33 Ermelo
1:0
Apr 1, 2023 Derde Divisie
DVS '33 Ermelo vs Staphorst
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Staphorst 58 / 100
DVS '33 Ermelo 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Staphorst DVS '33 Ermelo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Staphorst Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Staphorst scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
DVS '33 Ermelo has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Staphorst remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Staphorst VS DVS '33 Ermelo
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Staphorst
(Home) 29 Aug
ADO 20 Heemskerk
0 : 0 Staphorst
22 Aug
Staphorst
2 : 4 Excelsior 31
15 Aug
VV DOVO
2 : 2 Staphorst
23 May
Staphorst
2 : 1 Rohda Raalte
16 May
Excelsior 31
3 : 1 Staphorst
Page 1 of 6
22 Aug
Staphorst
2 : 4 Excelsior 31
23 May
Staphorst
2 : 1 Rohda Raalte
09 May
Staphorst
4 : 0 HSC '21
18 Apr
Staphorst
0 : 4 Genemuiden
04 Apr
Staphorst
0 : 2 Sportlust
Page 1 of 3
DVS '33 Ermelo
(Away) 29 Aug
ACV Assen
1 : 1 DVS '33 Ermelo
22 Aug
DVS '33 Ermelo
0 : 1 Harkemase Boys
15 Aug
Genemuiden
2 : 1 DVS '33 Ermelo
08 Aug
GVVV
3 : 0 DVS '33 Ermelo
30 May
DVS '33 Ermelo
2 : 2 Rijnvogels
Page 1 of 6
29 Aug
ACV Assen
1 : 1 DVS '33 Ermelo
15 Aug
Genemuiden
2 : 1 DVS '33 Ermelo
08 Aug
GVVV
3 : 0 DVS '33 Ermelo
27 May
Rijnvogels
1 : 0 DVS '33 Ermelo
16 May
Eemdijk
2 : 3 DVS '33 Ermelo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rohda Raalte | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 63:36 | 67 |
| 2 | DVS '33 Ermelo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 59:39 | 62 |
| 3 | Sparta Nijkerk | 34 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 84:43 | 61 |
| 4 | ADO 20 Heemskerk | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 46:36 | 60 |
| 5 | Genemuiden | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 61:52 | 56 |
| 6 | Staphorst | 34 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 63:53 | 54 |
| 7 | Harkemase Boys | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 56:44 | 52 |
| 8 | VV DOVO | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 53:43 | 52 |
| 9 | Eemdijk | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 68:59 | 50 |
| 10 | VV Scherpenzeel | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 59:49 | 49 |
| 11 | VV Hoogeveen | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 54:64 | 48 |
| 12 | Sportlust | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 54:52 | 47 |
| 13 | USV Hercules | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 53:57 | 44 |
| 14 | Excelsior 31 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 18 | 49:57 | 40 |
| 15 | Huizen | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 51:63 | 40 |
| 16 | TEC | 34 | 12 | 4 | 18 | 48:64 | 40 |
| 17 | Urk | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 61:97 | 31 |
| 18 | HSC '21 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 35:109 | 8 |
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VV Kloetinge | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 68:43 | 73 |
| 2 | Lisse | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 67:33 | 68 |
| 3 | VVSB | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 70:37 | 68 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63:39 | 64 |
| 5 | Gemert | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 71:46 | 61 |
| 6 | Roosendaal | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 71:58 | 54 |
| 7 | TOGB | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 64:61 | 53 |
| 8 | VV Zwaluwen | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 61:48 | 51 |
| 9 | Blauw Geel | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 53:51 | 48 |
| 10 | VV Noordwijk | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 56:51 | 44 |
| 11 | RKSV UDI 19 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 57:74 | 39 |
| 12 | UNA | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 51:59 | 38 |
| 13 | GOES | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 43:61 | 37 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 45:64 | 36 |
| 15 | SteDoCo | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 35:69 | 34 |
| 16 | SVV Scheveningen | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 49:65 | 32 |
| 17 | Meerssen | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 47:70 | 31 |
| 18 | ASWH | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 45:87 | 25 |
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie 2025/2026 (Relegation)
