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Stenhousemuir vs Alloa

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 Ochilview Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Stenhousemuir play Alloa in the Championship 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Stenhousemuir averaged 1.54 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. Alloa averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Stenhousemuir won 2, Alloa won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Stenhousemuir and 1.00 for Alloa. This points to a Stenhousemuir double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Stenhousemuir
27%
Draws
30%
Alloa
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Stenhousemuir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Stenhousemuir picked up more points recently compared to Alloa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Stenhousemuir Clean Sheet 23%
Alloa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stenhousemuir Alloa
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 12
Draws 8 4
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Championship
Stenhousemuir vs Alloa
0:1
May 13, 2026 Championship
Alloa vs Stenhousemuir
1:3
Apr 25, 2026 League One
Stenhousemuir vs Alloa
1:0
Dec 27, 2025 League One
Alloa vs Stenhousemuir
0:0
Oct 25, 2025 League One
Alloa vs Stenhousemuir
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stenhousemuir Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Alloa Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Donnell C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stenhousemuir 43 / 100
Alloa 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stenhousemuir Alloa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Stenhousemuir or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Stenhousemuir attacking → ← attacking Alloa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stenhousemuir scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Alloa let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Stenhousemuir went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Alloa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 40
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25