Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath

Scotland Scotland

Championship Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
O'Donnell L.
Assist: Hodgkiss L.
46'
Sub
Bonnar J. In: Winter A.
Out: Bonnar J.
62'
Mackie S.

AI Match Summary

Stenhousemuir in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Stenhousemuir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Stenhousemuir
15%
Draws
31%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stenhousemuir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Arbroath haven't matched Stenhousemuir's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Stenhousemuir's way, sitting at 70%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Stenhousemuir Clean Sheet 68%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stenhousemuir Arbroath
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 21 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.52 1
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Championship
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
1:0
Apr 12, 2025 League One
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
4:0
Feb 22, 2025 League One
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
2:0
Nov 2, 2024 League One
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
1:0
Aug 3, 2024 League One
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stenhousemuir Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Donnell L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Arbroath Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stenhousemuir 77 / 100
Arbroath 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stenhousemuir Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stenhousemuir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stenhousemuir scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Arbroath's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Stenhousemuir has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Stenhousemuir VS Arbroath
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Stenhousemuir

(Home)
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
15 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Partick
11 Sept
Stenhousemuir
0 : 3
Hearts
04 Sept
Livingston
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
29 Aug
Stenhousemuir
3 : 1
Inverness
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Arbroath

(Away)
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0
Arbroath
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
29 Aug
Arbroath
1 : 0
Livingston
22 Aug
Morton
1 : 2
Arbroath
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 7 6 1 0 11:2 19
2 Raith 7 4 2 1 11:3 14
3 Partick 7 3 3 1 5:2 12
4 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 6:4 12
5 Livingston 7 3 1 3 10:7 10
6 Ayr 7 2 2 3 7:8 8
7 Arbroath 7 2 2 3 4:9 8
8 Inverness 7 1 4 2 7:9 7
9 Queen's Park 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
10 Morton 7 0 1 6 4:13 1
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)