Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
O'Donnell L.
Assist: Hodgkiss L.
46'
Sub
Bonnar J. In: Winter A.
Out: Bonnar J.
62'
Mackie S.

AI Match Summary

Stenhousemuir in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Stenhousemuir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Stenhousemuir
15%
Draws
36%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stenhousemuir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Arbroath haven't matched Stenhousemuir's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Stenhousemuir's way, sitting at 50%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Stenhousemuir Clean Sheet 68%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stenhousemuir Arbroath
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 1.38 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Championship
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
1:0
Apr 12, 2025 League One
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
4:0
Feb 22, 2025 League One
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
2:0
Nov 2, 2024 League One
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
1:0
Aug 3, 2024 League One
Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stenhousemuir Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Donnell L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Arbroath Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stenhousemuir 59 / 100
Arbroath 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stenhousemuir Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stenhousemuir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stenhousemuir scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Arbroath's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Arbroath registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stenhousemuir VS Arbroath
0.5 Goals Scored 0.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Stenhousemuir

(Home)
03 Nov
Stenhousemuir
4 : 1
Berwick
30 Oct
Stenhousemuir
0 : 3
Livingston
27 Oct
Stenhousemuir
0 : 1
Dunfermline
24 Oct
Partick
3 : 0
Stenhousemuir
17 Oct
Stenhousemuir
1 : 1
Raith
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Arbroath

(Away)
03 Nov
Arbroath
1 : 0
Queen of the South
31 Oct
Arbroath
0 : 4
Raith
24 Oct
Livingston
1 : 0
Arbroath
17 Oct
Inverness
2 : 0
Arbroath
10 Oct
Arbroath
1 : 2
Morton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Partick 13 7 4 2 17:7 25
2 Raith 13 7 3 3 20:9 24
3 Dunfermline 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
4 Stenhousemuir 13 7 2 4 13:12 23
5 Livingston 13 6 2 5 18:11 20
6 Inverness 13 5 4 4 17:16 19
7 Ayr 12 4 3 5 13:14 15
8 Arbroath 13 3 2 8 7:22 11
9 Morton 12 3 1 8 12:20 10
10 Queen's Park 13 2 1 10 8:22 7
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)