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Stenhousemuir vs Morton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Sub
Cochrane H. In: Mcluckie B.
Out: Cochrane H.
45'
Bilham K.
46'
Sub
Bilham K. In: MacIntyre O.
Out: Bilham K.

AI Match Summary

The Championship game between Stenhousemuir and Morton finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stenhousemuir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Stenhousemuir
15%
Draws
0%
Morton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stenhousemuir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Morton haven't matched Stenhousemuir's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Stenhousemuir's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Stenhousemuir Clean Sheet 68%
Morton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stenhousemuir Morton
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 21 4
Draws 5 5
Losses 3 19
Goals Scored 1.48 0.71
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Championship
Stenhousemuir vs Morton
2:0
Jan 17, 2026 Scottish Cup
Stenhousemuir vs Morton
4:0
Jul 15, 2025 League Cup
Morton vs Stenhousemuir
3:0
Jun 28, 2022 Club Friendly
Stenhousemuir vs Morton
0:1
Jul 21, 2018 League Cup
Morton vs Stenhousemuir
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stenhousemuir Compare

Top Goalscorer Anderson M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stevenson G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Morton Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stenhousemuir 95 / 100
Morton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stenhousemuir Morton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stenhousemuir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stenhousemuir's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Morton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Morton's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Stenhousemuir VS Morton
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Stenhousemuir

(Home)
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
15 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Partick
11 Sept
Stenhousemuir
0 : 3
Hearts
04 Sept
Livingston
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
Page 1 of 6

Morton

(Away)
03 Oct
Morton
1 : 2
Raith
25 Sept
Inverness
2 : 0
Morton
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
11 Sept
Morton
1 : 4
Livingston
05 Sept
Queen's Park
2 : 1
Morton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 12:2 22
2 Raith 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
3 Partick 8 4 3 1 8:2 15
4 Livingston 9 4 1 4 13:9 13
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 6:4 12
6 Ayr 9 3 2 4 9:10 11
7 Arbroath 9 3 2 4 6:13 11
8 Inverness 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
10 Morton 9 0 1 8 5:17 1
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)