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Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Samsung völlurinn, Gardabaer
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Atlason E.
21' Event
Waren B.
Assist: Eggertsson O.
41'
Kjeldsen G.

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Stjarnan and KA Akureyri finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stjarnan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Stjarnan
20%
Draws
33%
KA Akureyri
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stjarnan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Stjarnan carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Stjarnan are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 14%
KA Akureyri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stjarnan KA Akureyri
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.85 1.6
Goals Conceded 2.18 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri
3:1
Apr 12, 2026 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Stjarnan
2:3
Aug 31, 2025 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri
3:2
Jun 1, 2025 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Stjarnan
1:1
Aug 18, 2024 Besta deild karla
KA Akureyri vs Stjarnan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stjarnan Compare

Top Goalscorer Atlason E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Waren B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

KA Akureyri Compare

Top Goalscorer Steingrimsson H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stjarnan 39 / 100
KA Akureyri 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stjarnan KA Akureyri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stjarnan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stjarnan found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (33 games).

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

KA Akureyri's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Stjarnan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stjarnan VS KA Akureyri
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Stjarnan

(Home)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
06 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
31 Aug
Breidablik
0 : 2
Stjarnan
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
Page 1 of 7

KA Akureyri

(Away)
19 Sept
KA Akureyri
3 : 0
Thor Akureyri
13 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
3 : 0
KA Akureyri
06 Sept
KA Akureyri
2 : 1
Breidablik
30 Aug
Fram
2 : 2
KA Akureyri
23 Aug
KA Akureyri
3 : 5
KR Reykjavik
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)