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Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Samsung völlurinn, Gardabaer
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Eggertsson O.
Assist: Ingason B.
41' Event
Atlason E.
Assist: Eggertsson O.
43'
Ingason B.

AI Match Summary

Stjarnan in this Besta deild karla matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Stjarnan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Stjarnan
15%
Draws
32%
Thor Akureyri
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stjarnan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Stjarnan have won more games recently than Thor Akureyri.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Stjarnan taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 16%
Thor Akureyri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stjarnan Thor Akureyri
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.81 1.31
Goals Conceded 2.23 2.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Besta deild karla
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri
4:2
May 31, 2026 Besta deild karla
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
1:3
Jun 12, 2024 Icelandic Cup
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
0:1
Feb 18, 2024 League Cup
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
5:1
Feb 19, 2022 League Cup
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stjarnan Compare

Top Goalscorer Atlason E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Eggertsson O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Thor Akureyri Compare

Top Goalscorer Gunnarsson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jakobsen C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stjarnan 84 / 100
Thor Akureyri 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stjarnan Thor Akureyri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stjarnan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Stjarnan scored in 90% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Thor Akureyri's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Stjarnan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stjarnan VS Thor Akureyri
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Stjarnan

(Home)
20 Sept
Hafnarfjordur
5 : 2
Stjarnan
13 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
06 Sept
Stjarnan
2 : 2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
31 Aug
Breidablik
0 : 2
Stjarnan
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
Page 1 of 7

Thor Akureyri

(Away)
19 Sept
KA Akureyri
3 : 0
Thor Akureyri
13 Sept
Valur
4 : 1
Thor Akureyri
06 Sept
Thor Akureyri
1 : 0
Hafnarfjordur
29 Aug
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0 : 1
Thor Akureyri
23 Aug
Stjarnan
4 : 2
Thor Akureyri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 67:21 53
2 Fram 22 13 6 3 56:42 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 74:49 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 43:41 30
5 Akranes 22 8 6 8 39:41 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 33:38 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 42:50 28
8 Valur 22 8 3 11 39:45 27
9 Hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 27:39 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 22:50 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 35:48 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 32:45 18
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)