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Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Samsung völlurinn, Gardabaer
Sun, Aug 23, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Stjarnan host Thor Akureyri in the Besta deild karla. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Stjarnan at 1.9 goals for, 2.16 against; Thor Akureyri at 1.76 for, 2.03 against. Past meetings favor Stjarnan slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 31, 2026, ending 1:3. xG projections (1.94 - 1.75) back Stjarnan to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Stjarnan
15%
Draws
46%
Thor Akureyri
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thor Akureyri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Stjarnan have won more games recently than Thor Akureyri.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Stjarnan Clean Sheet 12%
Thor Akureyri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stjarnan Thor Akureyri
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.9 1.76
Goals Conceded 2.16 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Besta deild karla
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
1:3
Jun 12, 2024 Icelandic Cup
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
0:1
Feb 18, 2024 League Cup
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
5:1
Feb 19, 2022 League Cup
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
1:1
Mar 9, 2019 League Cup
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stjarnan 30 / 100
Thor Akureyri 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stjarnan Thor Akureyri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Thor Akureyri Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Stjarnan scored in 90% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Thor Akureyri conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Stjarnan stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stjarnan VS Thor Akureyri
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
88% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Stjarnan

(Home)
17 Aug
Fram
3 : 1
Stjarnan
09 Aug
Stjarnan
1 : 0
Keflavik
03 Aug
Valur
2 : 3
Stjarnan
30 Jul
Ilves
3 : 1
Stjarnan
26 Jul
Akranes
5 : 1
Stjarnan
Page 1 of 7

Thor Akureyri

(Away)
15 Aug
Thor Akureyri
0 : 2
Keflavik
09 Aug
Akranes
2 : 0
Thor Akureyri
04 Aug
Thor Akureyri
1 : 0
Breidablik
27 Jul
KA Akureyri
0 : 0
Thor Akureyri
18 Jul
Thor Akureyri
2 : 1
Vikingur Reykjavik
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 19 15 3 1 62:18 48
2 KR Reykjavik 19 12 4 3 67:42 40
3 Fram 19 12 4 3 48:35 40
4 Breidablik 19 8 6 5 39:33 30
5 Akranes 19 7 4 8 33:37 25
6 Keflavik 19 7 4 8 30:34 25
7 Valur 19 7 2 10 35:40 23
8 Stjarnan 19 6 3 10 34:46 21
9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 4 5 10 30:41 17
10 Hafnarfjordur 19 3 8 8 24:36 17
11 KA Akureyri 19 4 4 11 28:40 16
12 Thor Akureyri 19 4 3 12 18:46 15
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)