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Stockton vs Alfreton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Thompson S.
47' Event
Scott J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Stockton and Alfreton finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stockton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Stockton
15%
Draws
48%
Alfreton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alfreton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Alfreton carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Stockton taking it.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Stockton Clean Sheet 16%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stockton Alfreton
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 7 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.14 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Alfreton
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stockton Compare

Top Goalscorer Thompson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Scott J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Alfreton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stockton 41 / 100
Alfreton 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stockton Alfreton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stockton scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Alfreton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Stockton remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Stockton VS Alfreton
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Stockton

(Home)
06 Oct
Stockton
1 : 0
Bury FC
03 Oct
Hyde
2 : 1
Stockton
26 Sept
Warrington Rylands
3 : 1
Stockton
19 Sept
Stockton
5 : 2
Bamber Bridge
12 Sept
Warrington Rylands
1 : 1
Stockton
Page 1 of 6

Alfreton

(Away)
06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0
United of Manchester
03 Oct
Redcar Athletic
3 : 1
Alfreton
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0
Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1
Shifnal Town
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0
Alfreton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 12 8 3 1 27:7 27
2 Avro 10 8 1 1 33:19 25
3 Redcar Athletic 12 7 4 1 23:11 25
4 Guiseley 11 7 1 3 24:11 22
5 Workington 12 6 3 3 23:19 21
6 Warrington Rylands 12 6 2 4 20:17 20
7 Curzon Ashton 10 6 1 3 21:11 19
8 Alfreton 12 6 0 6 18:13 18
9 Warrington Town 10 5 3 2 20:16 18
10 Bury FC 10 5 1 4 19:9 16
11 Gainsborough 10 5 1 4 20:14 16
12 Lancaster 12 5 1 6 16:24 16
13 Hyde 12 4 2 6 13:21 14
14 Ashton United 10 3 3 4 12:11 12
15 Whitby 11 4 0 7 17:32 12
16 Stockton 12 3 2 7 15:22 11
17 Leek Town 11 2 4 5 22:23 10
18 Quorn 11 2 4 5 18:27 10
19 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
20 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
21 Ilkeston 12 2 1 9 7:26 7
22 United of Manchester 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
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