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Stranraer vs Dumbarton

Scotland Scotland

League Two Stair Park, Stranraer
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Honeyman S.
38'
Craig D.
55' Event
Mason S.
Assist: Quigg A.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Stranraer and Dumbarton finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stranraer.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Stranraer
15%
Draws
21%
Dumbarton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stranraer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Stranraer carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Stranraer a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Stranraer Clean Sheet 20%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stranraer Dumbarton
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.38 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.41 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 League Two
Stranraer vs Dumbarton
3:1
Apr 4, 2026 League Two
Stranraer vs Dumbarton
1:1
Mar 10, 2026 League Two
Dumbarton vs Stranraer
2:0
Dec 20, 2025 League Two
Stranraer vs Dumbarton
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 League Two
Dumbarton vs Stranraer
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stranraer Compare

Top Goalscorer Mason S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dobbie L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Dumbarton Compare

Top Goalscorer Honeyman S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stranraer 85 / 100
Dumbarton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stranraer Dumbarton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stranraer Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dumbarton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Stranraer scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Stranraer has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Stranraer VS Dumbarton
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Stranraer

(Home)
12 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 1
Dumbarton
05 Sept
Forfar Athletic
0 : 3
Stranraer
01 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 4
Celtic B
29 Aug
Stranraer
2 : 0
Kelty Hearts
25 Aug
Stranraer
3 : 0
Gala Fairydean Rovers
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Dumbarton

(Away)
12 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 1
Dumbarton
08 Sept
Cove Rangers
6 : 1
Dumbarton
05 Sept
Dumbarton
2 : 1
Elgin City
29 Aug
Annan
2 : 0
Dumbarton
25 Aug
Dumbarton
2 : 2
Celtic B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clyde 7 5 1 1 18:9 16
2 Stranraer 7 4 1 2 12:7 13
3 Spartans 7 3 3 1 19:12 12
4 Elgin City 7 3 2 2 18:9 11
5 Annan 7 3 0 4 9:9 9
6 Kelty Hearts 7 3 0 4 10:15 9
7 Forfar Athletic 7 2 2 3 7:13 8
8 Edinburgh City 7 3 2 2 16:14 6
9 Dumbarton 7 2 0 5 5:14 6
10 Stirling 7 1 1 5 9:21 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)