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Stranraer vs Kelty Hearts - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League Two Stair Park, Stranraer
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Dobbie L.
Assist: Bruce Z.
37' Event
Dobbie L.
Assist: Bruce Z.
39'
Shanley R.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Stranraer and Kelty Hearts finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stranraer.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Stranraer
15%
Draws
32%
Kelty Hearts
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stranraer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Kelty Hearts carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Stranraer a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Kelty Hearts have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Stranraer Clean Sheet 14%
Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stranraer Kelty Hearts
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 11 12
Draws 6 1
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.64 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.32 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 League Two
Stranraer vs Kelty Hearts
2:0
Sep 6, 2025 Challenge Cup
Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer
3:0
Jul 25, 2023 League Cup
Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer
2:0
Apr 16, 2022 League Two
Stranraer vs Kelty Hearts
0:3
Jan 29, 2022 League Two
Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stranraer Compare

Top Goalscorer Dobbie L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.28

Kelty Hearts Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stranraer 66 / 100
Kelty Hearts 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stranraer Kelty Hearts

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stranraer Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kelty Hearts's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 27 matches.

Stranraer's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Stranraer went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stranraer VS Kelty Hearts
3.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Stranraer

(Home)
03 Oct
Stranraer
0 : 0
Edinburgh City
26 Sept
Stranraer
4 : 3
East Kilbride
22 Sept
Berwick
3 : 2
Stranraer
19 Sept
Elgin City
1 : 5
Stranraer
12 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 1
Dumbarton
Page 1 of 6

Kelty Hearts

(Away)
03 Oct
Spartans
0 : 2
Kelty Hearts
26 Sept
Kelty Hearts
2 : 1
Montrose
22 Sept
Kelty Hearts
3 : 5
Hearts B
19 Sept
Kelty Hearts
1 : 3
Edinburgh City
12 Sept
Clyde
4 : 1
Kelty Hearts
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stranraer 9 5 2 2 17:8 17
2 Clyde 9 5 2 2 21:16 17
3 Elgin City 9 4 2 3 25:16 14
4 Spartans 9 3 3 3 19:17 12
5 Kelty Hearts 9 4 0 5 13:18 12
6 Dumbarton 9 4 0 5 10:15 12
7 Forfar Athletic 9 3 2 4 9:15 11
8 Edinburgh City 9 4 3 2 19:15 10
9 Annan 9 3 0 6 9:11 9
10 Stirling 9 2 2 5 11:22 8
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)