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Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Champions League Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz Logo

Sturm Graz

0 - 1
FT
Fenerbahce Logo

Fenerbahce

Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Semedo N.
45'
Brown A.
61'
Sub
Kayombo A. In: Weiper N.
Out: Kayombo A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Sturm Graz
30%
Draws
31%
Fenerbahce
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sturm Graz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Fenerbahce have won more games recently than Sturm Graz.
  • Fenerbahce are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Fenerbahce arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Fenerbahce, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Fenerbahce here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 11%
Fenerbahce Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturm Graz Fenerbahce
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 17
Draws 9 6
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 1.89 2.18
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2026 Champions League
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce
0:1
Aug 5, 2026 Champions League
Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz
2:0
Aug 3, 2017 Europa League
Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz
1:1
Jul 27, 2017 Europa League
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturm Graz 10 / 100
Fenerbahce 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturm Graz Fenerbahce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fenerbahce Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sturm Graz scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Sturm Graz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Fenerbahce let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sturm Graz VS Fenerbahce
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sturm Graz

(Home)
02 Oct
Sturm Graz
3 : 1
Floridsdorfer AC Wien
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
Page 1 of 6

Fenerbahce

(Away)
03 Oct
Turan
0 : 2
Fenerbahce
20 Sept
Fenerbahce
8 : 0
Eyupspor
14 Sept
Gaziantep
0 : 0
Fenerbahce
10 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
AS Roma
05 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 2
Besiktas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Borac Banja Luka 1
Levski Sofia 5
ML Vitebsk 1
Univ. Craiova 5
Omonia -
TBD -
Kairat Almaty 4
Sutjeska 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun -
TBD -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb -
Klaksvik 4
Bissen 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris 4
Drita 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby -
TBD -
Lincoln Red Imps 4
Inter Escaldes 2
Flora 4
Iberia 1999 5
TBD -
Slovan Bratislava -
Ararat-Armenia 4
Riga FC 3
Floriana 3
Shamrock Rovers 5
Petrocub Hincesti 2
KF Egnatia 7
TBD -
Celje -
Vikingur Reykjavik 3
Gyor 2
TBD -
H. Beer Sheva -
Tre Fiori 1
Larne 3
TBD -
Crvena zvezda -
Aarhus -
TBD -
TBD -
Lech Poznan -
Sabah Baku 4
TNS 1
Vardar 3
KuPS 4
Fenerbahce -
TBD -
TBD -
Gornik Zabrze -
Sturm Graz -
TBD -
TBD -
Hearts -
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Quarter-finals
Levski Sofia 3
Univ. Craiova 2
Omonia 1
Kairat Almaty 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun 3
Din. Zagreb 4
Klaksvik 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 3
Lincoln Red Imps 0
Iberia 1999 1
Slovan Bratislava 3
Ararat-Armenia 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
KF Egnatia 5
Celje 6
Vikingur Reykjavik 2
H. Beer Sheva 3
Larne 0
Crvena zvezda 9
Aarhus 6
Lech Poznan 5
Sabah Baku 3
KuPS 0
Fenerbahce 2
Gornik Zabrze 1
Sturm Graz 6
Hearts 0
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Semi-finals
Levski Sofia 2
Kairat Almaty 0
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Din. Zagreb 7
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 1
Slovan Bratislava 4
Ararat-Armenia 2
Celje 3
H. Beer Sheva 3
Crvena zvezda 0
Aarhus 2
Sabah Baku 5
Fenerbahce 3
Sturm Graz 0
Sparta Prague 2
Lyon 4
Olympiacos Piraeus 1
Nijmegen 2
Royale Union SG 5
Bodo/Glimt 6
Final
Levski Sofia 0
AEK 4
Celtic 4
LASK Linz 5
Din. Zagreb 3
Viking 5
Slovan Bratislava 3
Celje 2
H. Beer Sheva 4
Sabah Baku 6
Fenerbahce 3
Lyon 2
Nijmegen 1
Bodo/Glimt 6