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Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide City

Australia Australia

NPL South Australia Karinya Reserve, Eden Hills
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Sortini A.

AI Match Summary

Sturt Lions FC in this NPL South Australia matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sturt Lions FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Sturt Lions FC
30%
Draws
50%
Adelaide City
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Adelaide City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Adelaide City have won more games recently than Sturt Lions FC.
  • Adelaide City are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular NPL South Australia form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Sturt Lions FC Clean Sheet 16%
Adelaide City Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturt Lions FC Adelaide City
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 20
Draws 3 7
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.73 2.43
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 NPL South Australia
Adelaide City vs Sturt Lions FC
4:1
Apr 18, 2026 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide City
1:0
Jun 17, 2023 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide City
2:2
Apr 1, 2023 NPL South Australia
Adelaide City vs Sturt Lions FC
2:0
Jul 30, 2022 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide City
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturt Lions FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Sortini A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Adelaide City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturt Lions FC 10 / 100
Adelaide City 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturt Lions FC Adelaide City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Adelaide City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sturt Lions FC scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Adelaide City has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Sturt Lions FC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sturt Lions FC VS Adelaide City
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sturt Lions FC

(Home)
15 Aug
Sturt Lions FC
1 : 3
Campbelltown City
11 Aug
Sturt Lions FC
0 : 0
Adelaide Comets
08 Aug
Croydon
1 : 1
Sturt Lions FC
25 Jul
Adelaide Utd U23
2 : 3
Sturt Lions FC
18 Jul
West Adelaide
0 : 0
Sturt Lions FC
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Adelaide City

(Away)
11 Sept
Adelaide City
3 : 2
West Torrens Birkalla
05 Sept
Adelaide City
6 : 0
Playford Patriots
29 Aug
Playford Patriots
1 : 2
Adelaide City
15 Aug
FK Beograd
0 : 3
Adelaide City
07 Aug
Adelaide City
1 : 0
Playford Patriots
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Adelaide City 22 14 6 2 44:16 48
2 West Torrens Birkalla 22 14 3 5 54:29 45
3 MetroStars 22 13 5 4 53:23 44
4 Playford Patriots 22 10 5 7 42:31 35
5 FK Beograd 22 10 3 9 35:30 33
6 Croydon 22 8 6 8 46:41 30
7 Adelaide Utd U23 22 7 8 7 33:32 29
8 Campbelltown City 22 8 5 9 35:36 29
9 Sturt Lions FC 22 8 3 11 35:36 27
10 West Adelaide 22 6 7 9 40:44 25
11 Adelaide Comets 22 5 5 12 25:38 20
12 Para 22 0 2 20 16:102 2
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Relegation - SA State League 2027 (Main)