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Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide Vipers

Australia Australia

SA State League 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sturt Lions FC play Adelaide Vipers in the SA State League 2025. Sturt Lions FC are favorites here. Recently, Sturt Lions FC averaged 2.12 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Adelaide Vipers averaged 1.33 goals scored and 2.09 conceded. In past meetings, Sturt Lions FC won 5, Adelaide Vipers won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 2, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.85 for Sturt Lions FC and 1.31 for Adelaide Vipers. This points to a Sturt Lions FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Sturt Lions FC
15%
Draws
24%
Adelaide Vipers
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sturt Lions FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Sturt Lions FC picked up more points recently compared to Adelaide Vipers.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.85 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Sturt Lions FC Clean Sheet 18%
Adelaide Vipers Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturt Lions FC Adelaide Vipers
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 21 9
Draws 1 6
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 2.12 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.27 2.09

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2025 SA State League
Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide Vipers
2:1
May 10, 2025 SA State League
Adelaide Vipers vs Sturt Lions FC
0:3
Jun 29, 2024 SA State League
Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide Vipers
4:2
Apr 6, 2024 SA State League
Adelaide Vipers vs Sturt Lions FC
1:3
Sep 5, 2020 SA State League
Adelaide Vipers vs Sturt Lions FC
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturt Lions FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Munro N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Silvestri A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Adelaide Vipers Compare

Top Goalscorer Leaalafa M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturt Lions FC 59 / 100
Adelaide Vipers 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturt Lions FC Adelaide Vipers

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sturt Lions FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Sturt Lions FC & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.3%
1.89
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sturt Lions FC attacking → ← attacking Adelaide Vipers

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sturt Lions FC scored in 88% of their last 33 games.

Adelaide Vipers let in goals in 88% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Sturt Lions FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Adelaide Vipers lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

64 Points in last 5 33
2.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sturt Lions FC22191258:1858
2Fulham United22143548:2245
3West Adelaide22124646:2340
4Salisbury United22114736:3237
5Blue Eagles22104844:2734
6Cumberland United221011135:3431
7The Cove FC2294940:4431
8Adelaide Olympic2286830:3330
9Adelaide Cobras22741132:4525
10South Adelaide22531428:4218
11Adelaide Vipers22461223:4218
12Pontian Eagles22221815:738