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Subiza vs Pena

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Recalde J.
45' Event
Muro A.
68' Event
Sola J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2025/2026 game between Subiza and Pena finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Subiza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Subiza
35%
Draws
45%
Pena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pena come out ahead of Subiza on wins alone.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Pena taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Subiza Clean Sheet 19%
Pena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Subiza Pena
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 19
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.34 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Pena vs Subiza
2:1
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Subiza vs Pena
3:2
Aug 9, 2024 Club Friendly
Pena vs Subiza
0:1
Apr 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Pena vs Subiza
1:1
Nov 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Subiza vs Pena
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Subiza Compare

Top Goalscorer Monroy G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sola J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Recalde J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Muro A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Subiza 10 / 100
Pena 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Subiza Pena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Subiza found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Pena let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Subiza went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Subiza VS Pena
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Subiza

(Home)
23 Aug
Subiza
2 : 2
Izarra
15 Aug
Real Sociedad C
3 : 0
Subiza
24 May
Izarra
4 : 0
Subiza
17 May
Subiza
1 : 0
Izarra
09 May
Beti Kozkor
0 : 0
Subiza
Page 1 of 6

Pena

(Away)
25 Aug
Erriberri
0 : 3
Pena
18 Aug
Mutilvera
1 : 1
Pena
11 Aug
AD San Juan
1 : 1
Pena
09 May
CA Artajones
1 : 2
Pena
03 May
Pena
2 : 1
Subiza
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pena 34 24 5 5 65:39 77
2 Pamplona 34 22 8 4 65:28 74
3 Izarra 34 16 13 5 64:31 61
4 Subiza 34 15 9 10 46:31 54
5 AD San Juan 34 12 16 6 43:28 52
6 Huarte 34 15 2 17 49:47 47
7 Beti Kozkor 34 12 10 12 50:43 46
8 Ezcabarte 34 12 9 13 47:49 45
9 Cortes 34 13 5 16 37:51 44
10 Cirbonero 34 11 10 13 38:42 43
11 Txantrea 34 12 7 15 52:67 43
12 Valle Egues 34 11 9 14 48:57 42
13 Bidezarra 34 10 9 15 34:40 39
14 Aoiz 34 9 9 16 41:49 36
15 CD Beti Onak 34 9 9 16 42:55 36
16 CD Ardoi 34 8 12 14 46:56 36
17 Oberena 34 7 10 17 32:61 31
18 CA Artajones 34 7 10 17 36:61 31
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2025/2026 (Play Offs)