Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Africa Cup of Nations. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Recent numbers: Sudan at 1.05 goals for, 0.97 against; Ethiopia at 1.14 for, 1.21 against. Head-to-head, Sudan have won 2 to Ethiopia's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Dec 25, 2024, ending 2:1. The numbers (0.53 xG vs 1.15) point toward Sudan. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%

Sudan

15%

Draws

65%

Ethiopia

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ethiopia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence

Ethiopia haven't matched Sudan's recent run of results.
Ethiopia are the model's pick here, at 80%.
Sudan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Ethiopia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 15%

Over 4.5 Goals 7%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%

Sudan Clean Sheet 20%

Ethiopia Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sudan	Ethiopia
Matches Played	39	29
Wins	14	11
Draws	12	5
Losses	13	13
Goals Scored	1.05	1.14
Goals Conceded	0.97	1.21
Expected Goals (xG)	0.53	1.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 25, 2024 African Nations Championship

Sudan vs Ethiopia

2:1

Dec 22, 2024 African Nations Championship

Ethiopia vs Sudan

0:2

Sep 26, 2022 Friendly International

Ethiopia vs Sudan

2:2

Sep 23, 2022 Friendly International

Ethiopia vs Sudan

1:1

Dec 30, 2021 Friendly International

Sudan vs Ethiopia

2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sudan 12 / 100

Ethiopia 76 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sudan Ethiopia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ethiopia Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ethiopia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Sudan's goal record stands at 54% scoring rate across 39 recent games.

Solid form: Sudan remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sudan VS Ethiopia

0.38 Goals Scored 1.17

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.67

50% Over 1.5 50%

25% Over 2.5 33%

13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Sudan

(Home)

03 Jan

Senegal

3 : 1

Sudan

31 Dec

Sudan

0 : 2

Burkina Faso

28 Dec

Equatorial Guinea

0 : 1

Sudan

24 Dec

Algeria

3 : 0

Sudan

09 Dec

Bahrain

3 : 1

Sudan

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Ethiopia

(Away)

09 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 1

Malawi

06 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Malawi

31 Mar

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Sao Tome and Principe

27 Mar

Sao Tome and Principe

0 : 3

Ethiopia

12 Oct

Burkina Faso

3 : 1

Ethiopia

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