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Sudbury vs Leiston - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Fraser A.
65' Event
Rangel J.
67' Event
Blois R.

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 game between Sudbury and Leiston finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leiston.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Sudbury
15%
Draws
51%
Leiston
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leiston

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leiston come out ahead of Sudbury on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Leiston's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Leiston have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 71%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Sudbury Clean Sheet 10%
Leiston Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sudbury Leiston
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 20 8
Goals Scored 1.37 1.87
Goals Conceded 2.77 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Sudbury vs Leiston
0:3
Oct 25, 2025 FA Trophy
Sudbury vs Leiston
2:1
Oct 21, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Leiston vs Sudbury
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Sudbury vs Leiston
1:2
Sep 10, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Leiston vs Sudbury
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sudbury Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Leiston Compare

Top Goalscorer Fraser A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rangel J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sudbury 14 / 100
Leiston 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sudbury Leiston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leiston Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leiston let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Sudbury found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Difficult form: Leiston registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sudbury VS Leiston
2 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
67% Over 2.5 88%
67% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Sudbury

(Home)
12 Sept
Ware
2 : 0
Sudbury
29 Aug
Sudbury
3 : 1
Lowestoft
01 Aug
Bury Town
3 : 3
Sudbury
25 Apr
Halesowen
5 : 0
Sudbury
18 Apr
Sudbury
0 : 4
Stourbridge
Page 1 of 6

Leiston

(Away)
03 Oct
Leiston
3 : 1
Coventry United
29 Sept
Real Bedford
3 : 2
Leiston
26 Sept
Leiston
0 : 3
Dartford
22 Sept
Leiston
0 : 2
Peterborough Sports
19 Sept
Hitchin
1 : 2
Leiston
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)