Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sundsvall vs Varnamo

Sweden Sweden

Superettan NP3 Arena, Sundsvall
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sundsvall host Varnamo in the Superettan. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Varnamo have shipped 1.8 goals a game lately, while Sundsvall have conceded 1.97 and scored 0.9. Past meetings favor Varnamo slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 14, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 0.69 vs 1.69, favoring Varnamo. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sundsvall
15%
Draws
45%
Varnamo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Varnamo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varnamo lately — more wins on the board than Sundsvall.
  • Win probability leans Varnamo's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Sundsvall Clean Sheet 13%
Varnamo Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sundsvall Varnamo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 2 6
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 0.9 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 Superettan
Varnamo vs Sundsvall
3:0
Oct 19, 2022 Allsvenskan
Sundsvall vs Varnamo
1:2
Jul 11, 2022 Allsvenskan
Varnamo vs Sundsvall
1:1
Aug 14, 2021 Superettan
Sundsvall vs Varnamo
2:0
Apr 18, 2021 Superettan
Varnamo vs Sundsvall
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sundsvall 22 / 100
Varnamo 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sundsvall Varnamo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varnamo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Varnamo conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Sundsvall has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Sundsvall scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sundsvall VS Varnamo
0.38 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sundsvall

(Home)
20 Sept
Sundsvall
3 : 2
Ljungskile
15 Sept
Landskrona
4 : 0
Sundsvall
10 Sept
Sundsvall
0 : 3
Orebro
05 Sept
Brage
0 : 1
Sundsvall
31 Aug
Sundsvall
1 : 0
Norrby
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Varnamo

(Away)
19 Sept
Oddevold
1 : 2
Varnamo
15 Sept
Varnamo
1 : 3
Oster
09 Sept
Nordic United
2 : 4
Varnamo
05 Sept
Varnamo
1 : 1
Varberg
29 Aug
Ljungskile
0 : 1
Varnamo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 48:16 55
2 Falkenberg 25 13 6 6 46:33 45
3 Varberg 25 13 5 7 44:33 44
4 Ostersund 25 11 10 4 33:24 43
5 Landskrona 25 11 7 7 39:26 40
6 Sandviken 25 10 7 8 43:33 37
7 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 38:34 36
8 Oster 25 11 3 11 38:38 36
9 Nordic United 25 9 9 7 38:40 36
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 36:45 30
11 Varnamo 25 8 5 12 33:45 29
12 Ljungskile 25 6 7 12 31:38 25
13 Norrby 25 4 12 9 28:35 24
14 Orebro 25 5 9 11 27:39 24
15 Brage 25 5 8 12 39:48 23
16 Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19:53 19
Promotion - Allsvenskan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)