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Sunrise vs Police - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sunrise host Police in the Premier League. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Police have shipped 0.7 goals a game lately, while Sunrise have conceded 1.28 and scored 0.83. Past meetings favor Sunrise slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 14, 2024, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 0.60 vs 0.60, favoring Police. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Sunrise
20%
Draws
42%
Police
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Police carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Sunrise Clean Sheet 20%
Police Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunrise Police
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 8 9
Draws 7 13
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.83 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.28 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.60 0.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2024 Premier League
Sunrise vs Police
2:1
Aug 20, 2023 Premier League
Police vs Sunrise
2:0
Feb 26, 2023 Premier League
Police vs Sunrise
2:1
Aug 19, 2022 Premier League
Sunrise vs Police
1:0
Mar 12, 2021 Premier League
Sunrise vs Police
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunrise 31 / 100
Police 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunrise Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sunrise Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Sunrise went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sunrise found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

Police's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 33 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sunrise VS Police
0.33 Goals Scored 0.88
0.33 Goals Conceded 0.88
33% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sunrise

(Home)
17 Sept
Rayon Sport
1 : 1
Sunrise
05 Sept
Etincelles
0 : 0
Sunrise
11 May
Sunrise
3 : 1
Marines
04 May
Amagaju
1 : 0
Sunrise
28 Apr
Sunrise
2 : 1
Gorilla
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
17 Sept
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 1
Police
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
2 Etincelles 3 2 1 0 2:0 7
3 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
4 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
5 Al-Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
6 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 Marines 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
8 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Gorilla 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Kiyovu 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
12 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
13 Rayon Sport 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
14 Al-Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
15 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
16 Kigali FC 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
17 Bugesera 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)