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Sunrise vs Police

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Hakitimana M.
(Penalty)
77' Event
Ssali B.
78' Event
Murenzi P.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Sunrise and Police finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sunrise.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Sunrise
20%
Draws
42%
Police
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Sunrise's 0.83 goals per match outpaces what Police have produced (0.71).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Sunrise Clean Sheet 68%
Police Clean Sheet 21%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sunrise Police
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 8
Draws 7 13
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.83 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.28 0.65
Expected Goals (xG) 0.60 0.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2024 Premier League
Sunrise vs Police
2:1
Aug 20, 2023 Premier League
Police vs Sunrise
2:0
Feb 26, 2023 Premier League
Police vs Sunrise
2:1
Aug 19, 2022 Premier League
Sunrise vs Police
1:0
Mar 12, 2021 Premier League
Sunrise vs Police
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sunrise Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssali B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Murenzi P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.3

Police Compare

Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.33

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sunrise 41 / 100
Police 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sunrise Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sunrise Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sunrise remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Sunrise found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

Police let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sunrise VS Police
0.33 Goals Scored 0.88
0.33 Goals Conceded 0.88
33% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sunrise

(Home)
17 Sept
Rayon Sport
1 : 1
Sunrise
05 Sept
Etincelles
0 : 0
Sunrise
11 May
Sunrise
3 : 1
Marines
04 May
Amagaju
1 : 0
Sunrise
28 Apr
Sunrise
2 : 1
Gorilla
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
17 Sept
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 1
Police
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APR 30 19 11 0 47:17 68
2 Rayon Sport 30 17 6 7 42:25 57
3 Musanze 30 16 5 9 34:24 53
4 Mukura Victory Sports 30 13 8 9 39:32 47
5 Kigali FC 30 12 9 9 26:25 45
6 Kiyovu 30 11 11 8 38:34 44
7 Police 30 12 3 15 35:34 39
8 Amagaju 30 10 9 11 30:31 39
9 Gasogi United 30 10 6 14 31:34 36
10 Gorilla 30 9 8 13 26:33 35
11 Marines 30 9 8 13 32:42 35
12 Muhazi United 30 7 12 11 21:29 33
13 Bugesera 30 7 11 12 37:35 32
14 Etincelles 30 8 8 14 35:44 32
15 Sunrise 30 9 5 16 25:40 32
16 Etoile de L'Est 30 9 4 17 20:39 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2024/2025 (Qualification)