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Super Nova vs FK Liepaja - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Jana Skredela stadions, Riga
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Match Events

19'
Lizunovs V.
25'
Talisca
28'
Samate A.

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Super Nova and FK Liepaja finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Super Nova
35%
Draws
30%
FK Liepaja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Super Nova haven't matched FK Liepaja's recent run of results.
  • Super Nova are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 20%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova FK Liepaja
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.89 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
1:2
Jun 12, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
2:1
Apr 23, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
3:0
Aug 25, 2025 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Cirulis J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Patijcuks D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ogunniyi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 42 / 100
FK Liepaja 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: FK Liepaja conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Super Nova stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS FK Liepaja
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
Page 1 of 6

FK Liepaja

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)