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Super Nova vs Grobina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Jana Skredela stadions, Riga
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Super Nova host Grobina in the Virsliga. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Super Nova at 0.93 goals for, 1.31 against; Grobina at 0.79 for, 1.64 against. Past meetings favor Super Nova slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 20, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.63 - 0.81) back Super Nova to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Super Nova
30%
Draws
29%
Grobina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Super Nova have won more games recently than Grobina.
  • Super Nova are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 20%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova Grobina
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 10 6
Draws 4 12
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.93 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Grobina
2:0
May 20, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Super Nova
0:2
Apr 9, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Super Nova
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 Virsliga
Grobina vs Super Nova
0:0
Jul 26, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Grobina
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 40 / 100
Grobina 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova Grobina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Grobina let in goals in 76% of their last 33 matches.

Super Nova has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS Grobina
0.75 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
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Grobina

(Away)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)