Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Super Nova vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga LNK Sporta Parks - artificial grass, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Glaudans A.
26' Event
Cirulis J.
Own Goal
36'
Barkovskis N.

AI Match Summary

Super Nova in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Super Nova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Super Nova
39%
Draws
31%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Super Nova lately — more wins on the board than Ogre United.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 68%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova Ogre United
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 6
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.88 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
1:2
May 16, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 3, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:0
Jul 27, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Glaudans A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barkovskis N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 41 / 100
Ogre United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SUP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Super Nova remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS Ogre United
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
11 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
06 Jul
Super Nova
1 : 2
Ogre United
01 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
25 Jun
Super Nova
1 : 5
Jelgava
21 Jun
Super Nova
0 : 2
FK Auda Riga
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Ogre United

(Away)
19 Jul
Ogre United
0 : 4
BFC Daugavpils
12 Jul
Valmiera
2 : 4
Ogre United
06 Jul
Super Nova
1 : 2
Ogre United
30 Jun
FK Liepaja
4 : 0
Ogre United
26 Jun
Ogre United
3 : 2
Tukums 2000
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Riga FC23184168:2058
2RFS22182254:1656
3FK Auda Riga22124637:2640
4BFC Daugavpils2386929:2930
5FK Liepaja22841028:3428
6Jelgava2267924:3825
7Super Nova22731223:3524
8Grobina22481015:3320
9Tukums 200023381238:4717
10Ogre United23341621:5913
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga 2027 (Main)