Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Super Nova vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga LNK Sporta Parks - artificial grass, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Glaudans A.
26' Event
Cirulis J.
Own Goal
36'
Barkovskis N.

AI Match Summary

Super Nova in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Super Nova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Super Nova
30%
Draws
8%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Super Nova lately — more wins on the board than Ogre United.
  • Super Nova are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 68%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Super Nova Ogre United
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 4
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 1 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.31 2.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
1:2
May 16, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 3, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 1. Liga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:0
Jul 27, 2024 1. Liga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Glaudans A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barkovskis N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Super Nova 86 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Super Nova Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United has conceded goals in 96% of their last 28 outings.

Attacking prowess: Super Nova scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Super Nova remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Super Nova VS Ogre United
1 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.88
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Super Nova

(Home)
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
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Ogre United

(Away)
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
Ogre United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 29 23 4 2 70:21 73
2 Riga FC 30 21 7 2 85:30 70
3 FK Auda Riga 30 18 6 6 48:29 60
4 FK Liepaja 30 12 6 12 41:43 42
5 BFC Daugavpils 30 10 8 12 35:35 38
6 Super Nova 29 10 5 14 29:39 35
7 Jelgava 30 8 8 14 32:48 32
8 Grobina 30 5 10 15 20:51 25
9 Tukums 2000 30 5 8 17 43:60 23
10 Ogre United 30 3 6 21 29:76 15
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)