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Stadium Background

Suwalki vs Swit Mazowiecki

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 Stadion Miejski w Suwałkach
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Machala M.
14' Event
Kwiatkowski J.
49' Event
Witek J.

AI Match Summary

Suwalki in this III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Suwalki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Suwalki
6%
Draws
4%
Swit Mazowiecki
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Suwalki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Suwalki have won more games recently than Swit Mazowiecki.
  • Suwalki are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Suwalki Clean Sheet 18%
Swit Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Suwalki Swit Mazowiecki
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 18 9
Draws 4 4
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Swit Mazowiecki
3:2
Nov 15, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Swit Mazowiecki vs Suwalki
2:3
Apr 18, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Swit Mazowiecki
0:1
Sep 21, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Swit Mazowiecki vs Suwalki
0:3
Jan 23, 2021 Club Friendly
Swit Mazowiecki vs Suwalki
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Suwalki Compare

Top Goalscorer Machala M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kwiatkowski J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Swit Mazowiecki Compare

Top Goalscorer Moscicki L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jarzebski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Suwalki 85 / 100
Swit Mazowiecki 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Suwalki Swit Mazowiecki

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WIG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Suwalki found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Swit Mazowiecki's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Suwalki has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Suwalki VS Swit Mazowiecki
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Legia II34273482:2984
2LKS Lomza34225777:3171
3Warta Sieradz34218564:3471
4Suwalki34205964:4365
5Troszyn341761175:4757
6Plock II341681056:5156
7Widzew Lodz II341731470:6454
8Jagiellonia II341471346:4549
9Tomaszow Mazowiecki341381364:5547
10Zabkovia Zabki341351672:6444
11Swit Mazowiecki341251751:6641
12MKS Mlawa341171655:5940
13Olimpia Elblag341081645:6138
14GKS Wikielec341071740:5437
15Bron Radom34991640:5736
16GKS Belchatow34971850:7634
17Wasilkow34742340:7925
18Znicz Biala Piska34432727:10315