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SV Erlbach vs Geretsried - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Oberliga Bayern Süd
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SV Erlbach host Geretsried in the Oberliga Bayern Süd. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Geretsried have shipped 1.56 goals a game lately, while SV Erlbach have conceded 0.94 and scored 1.32. Past meetings favor SV Erlbach slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 10, 2026, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.44 - 0.75) back SV Erlbach to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
SV Erlbach
20%
Draws
22%
Geretsried
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: SV Erlbach

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • SV Erlbach have won more games recently than Geretsried.
  • SV Erlbach are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
SV Erlbach Clean Sheet 20%
Geretsried Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SV Erlbach Geretsried
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 14 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.32 1.47
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Oberliga Bayern Süd
SV Erlbach vs Geretsried
1:2
Sep 27, 2025 Oberliga Bayern Süd
Geretsried vs SV Erlbach
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SV Erlbach 85 / 100
Geretsried 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SV Erlbach Geretsried

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SV Erlbach Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Geretsried has conceded goals in 84% of their last 32 outings.

Attacking prowess: SV Erlbach scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: SV Erlbach remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SV Erlbach VS Geretsried
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

SV Erlbach

(Home)
03 Oct
Heimstetten
0 : 0
SV Erlbach
25 Sept
SV Erlbach
1 : 1
Pipinsried
18 Sept
Munich 1860 II
0 : 1
SV Erlbach
11 Sept
SV Erlbach
3 : 0
Kottern-St. Mang
04 Sept
TSV 1860 Rosenheim
1 : 0
SV Erlbach
Page 1 of 7

Geretsried

(Away)
03 Oct
Geretsried
1 : 2
Kirchanschoring
26 Sept
Gundelfingen
0 : 1
Geretsried
19 Sept
Geretsried
0 : 3
TSV 1880 Wasserburg
12 Sept
Deisenhofen
4 : 0
Geretsried
05 Sept
Geretsried
0 : 1
Landshut
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pipinsried 13 9 2 2 37:17 29
2 Landshut 13 7 4 2 26:14 25
3 TSV 1880 Wasserburg 13 8 1 4 31:22 25
4 SV Erlbach 13 6 5 2 15:6 23
5 Pfaffenhofen 13 6 5 2 24:22 23
6 Hankofen-Hailing 13 6 4 3 23:17 22
7 FC Schwaig 13 4 8 1 25:15 20
8 Ismaning 13 5 2 6 26:19 17
9 Heimstetten 13 4 5 4 23:24 17
10 Munich 1860 II 13 4 4 5 28:27 16
11 Kottern-St. Mang 13 4 3 6 12:18 15
12 Gundelfingen 13 3 5 5 17:22 14
13 TSV Schwabmunchen 13 3 4 6 25:27 13
14 Deisenhofen 13 3 4 6 19:28 13
15 Kirchanschoring 13 3 3 7 17:29 12
16 TSV 1860 Rosenheim 13 2 5 6 17:24 11
17 Geretsried 13 3 2 8 13:27 11
18 Schalding 13 2 4 7 18:38 10
Promotion - Regionalliga Bayern 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Regionalliga Bayern (Relegation)
Relegation - Oberliga Bayern Nord (Relegation)