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Svay Rieng vs Phnom Penh Crown - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 Morodok Techo National Stadium, Phnom Penh
Svay Rieng Logo

Svay Rieng

2 - 1
FT
Phnom Penh Crown Logo

Phnom Penh Crown

Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Gutierrez D.
27'
Caetano B.
40'
Shields C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Svay Rieng advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Svay Rieng
30%
Draws
43%
Phnom Penh Crown
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Phnom Penh Crown

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Svay Rieng come out ahead of Phnom Penh Crown on wins alone.
  • Phnom Penh Crown are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Svay Rieng have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Phnom Penh Crown, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Svay Rieng here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Svay Rieng Clean Sheet 10%
Phnom Penh Crown Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Svay Rieng Phnom Penh Crown
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 2.23 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.82 2.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 CPL
Svay Rieng vs Phnom Penh Crown
1:2
Apr 4, 2026 CPL
Phnom Penh Crown vs Svay Rieng
1:4
Mar 12, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Svay Rieng vs Phnom Penh Crown
2:1
Mar 5, 2026 AFC Challenge League
Phnom Penh Crown vs Svay Rieng
1:4
Jan 18, 2026 CPL
Phnom Penh Crown vs Svay Rieng
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Svay Rieng Compare

Top Goalscorer Odawara T.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.91

Phnom Penh Crown Compare

Top Goalscorer Dyer M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.91
Avg xA / game 1.17

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Svay Rieng 22 / 100
Phnom Penh Crown 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Svay Rieng Phnom Penh Crown

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Phnom Penh Crown Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Svay Rieng scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Phnom Penh Crown has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Svay Rieng went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Svay Rieng VS Phnom Penh Crown
2.5 Goals Scored 1.57
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.14
100% Over 1.5 86%
88% Over 2.5 71%
63% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Svay Rieng

(Home)
08 Oct
Johor DT
6 : 0
Svay Rieng
20 Sept
Dangkor Senchey
1 : 1
Svay Rieng
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0
Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Svay Rieng
4 : 0
Tiffy Army
06 Sept
Kirivong Sok Sen Chey
0 : 3
Svay Rieng
Page 1 of 6

Phnom Penh Crown

(Away)
17 Sept
Phnom Penh Crown
2 : 1
Kuching City FC
12 Sept
Angkor Tiger
2 : 2
Phnom Penh Crown
05 Sept
Phnom Penh Crown
2 : 2
NagaWorld
17 May
Svay Rieng
1 : 2
Phnom Penh Crown
10 May
Phnom Penh Crown
3 : 0
NagaWorld
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Al Ansar 0
Muras United 3
Al Shabab 3
Al Kuwait 5
Svay Rieng 6
Phnom Penh Crown 2
Dewa United 2
Manila Digger 3
Semi-finals
Muras United 1
Al Kuwait 2
Svay Rieng 4
Manila Digger 1
Final
Al Kuwait 4
Svay Rieng 3