Sport Picks
Svetkavitsa vs Ustrem Donchevo
Bulgaria
Third League - North-East 2025/2026 
AI Match Summary
The Third League - North-East 2025/2026 game between Svetkavitsa and Ustrem Donchevo finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ustrem Donchevo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ustrem Donchevo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Ustrem Donchevo carry the better recent record into this one.
- 85% — that's where the model lands on Ustrem Donchevo taking it.
- Regular Third League - North-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 96%).
- Ustrem Donchevo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 96%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Svetkavitsa Clean Sheet 10%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Svetkavitsa | Ustrem Donchevo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 0 | 12 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 29 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.2 | 2.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 3.67 | 2.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.73 | 2.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 13, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Svetkavitsa
3:0
Nov 15, 2025 Third League - North-East
Svetkavitsa vs Ustrem Donchevo
0:5
May 3, 2025 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Svetkavitsa
6:4
Nov 2, 2024 Third League - North-East
Svetkavitsa vs Ustrem Donchevo
3:1
Mar 30, 2024 Third League - North-East
Svetkavitsa vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:3
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Svetkavitsa 18 / 100
Ustrem Donchevo 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Svetkavitsa Ustrem Donchevo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ustrem Donchevo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ustrem Donchevo let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.
Ustrem Donchevo lost 5 of their last 5 games.
Svetkavitsa scored in 13% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
Svetkavitsa VS Ustrem Donchevo
0 Goals Scored 2.5
3 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Svetkavitsa
(Home) 30 May
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Olympic Varna
23 May
Dorostol
3 : 0 Svetkavitsa
16 May
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Ludogorets III
13 May
Ustrem Donchevo
3 : 0 Svetkavitsa
09 May
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Volov Shumen
Page 1 of 6
30 May
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Olympic Varna
16 May
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Ludogorets III
09 May
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Volov Shumen
29 Apr
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Chernolomets
25 Apr
Svetkavitsa
0 : 3 Botev Novi Pazar
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Ustrem Donchevo
(Away) 20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2 Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4 Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3 Svetkavitsa 2014
26 Aug
Botev Novi Pazar
5 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2 Ustrem Donchevo
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
26 Aug
Botev Novi Pazar
5 : 1 Ustrem Donchevo
30 May
FK Riltzi
2 : 4 Ustrem Donchevo
16 May
Chernolomets
3 : 0 Ustrem Donchevo
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chernomorets Balchik | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 92:14 | 85 |
| 2 | Ludogorets III | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 101:19 | 79 |
| 3 | Septemvri Tervel | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 89:22 | 78 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 32 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 93:28 | 72 |
| 5 | Chernolomets | 32 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 78:43 | 63 |
| 6 | Benkovski | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 68:40 | 60 |
| 7 | Cherno More II | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 65:44 | 55 |
| 8 | Ustrem Donchevo | 32 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 73:67 | 54 |
| 9 | Olympic Varna | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 58:80 | 36 |
| 10 | Aksakovo | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 40:68 | 31 |
| 11 | Fratria II | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:71 | 30 |
| 12 | Svetkavitsa 2014 | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 26:48 | 29 |
| 13 | Botev Novi Pazar | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34:69 | 29 |
| 14 | Dorostol | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 29:67 | 28 |
| 15 | Spartak Varna II | 32 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 42:72 | 26 |
| 16 | FK Riltzi | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 31:83 | 22 |
| 17 | Svetkavitsa | 32 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 5:129 | 1 |
Promotion - Vtora liga 2025/2026 (Main)
