Sport Picks
Swansea vs Crawley Town
England
EFL Cup 2025/2026 Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea 
Match Events
4'
4'
Ronald
Assist: Tymon J.
54'
54'
Flint J.
61'
61'
Sub
Roles J. In: Holohan G.
Out: Roles J.
AI Match Summary
Swansea in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Swansea
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Swansea have won more games recently than Crawley Town.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Swansea taking it.
- Swansea have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Swansea, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Swansea have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Swansea Clean Sheet 20%
Crawley Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Swansea | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 26 |
| Wins | 13 | 5 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 0.85 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
Swansea vs Crawley Town
3:1
Jul 13, 2019 Club Friendly
Crawley Town vs Swansea
2:3
Sep 25, 2012 EFL Cup
Crawley Town vs Swansea
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Swansea Compare
Top Goalscorer Ronald
1 Goals Assists Leader Wales B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Crawley Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Tshimanga K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Swansea 85 / 100
Crawley Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Swansea Crawley Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Swansea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.67 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Swansea scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Crawley Town conceded in 69% of 26 recent games.
Swansea has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Swansea VS Crawley Town
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Swansea
(Home) 12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1 Swansea
05 Sept
Swansea
0 : 0 Wrexham
01 Sept
Swansea
2 : 0 Watford
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3 Swansea
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
05 Sept
Swansea
0 : 0 Wrexham
01 Sept
Swansea
2 : 0 Watford
22 Aug
Swansea
0 : 0 Sheffield Utd
08 Aug
Swansea
0 : 1 Birmingham
Page 1 of 4
Crawley Town
(Away) 12 Sept
Crawley Town
1 : 3 Cheltenham
05 Sept
Accrington
3 : 2 Crawley Town
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1 Crawley Town
29 Aug
Crawley Town
0 : 2 Bristol Rovers
22 Aug
Rochdale
1 : 2 Crawley Town
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Accrington
3 : 2 Crawley Town
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1 Crawley Town
22 Aug
Rochdale
1 : 2 Crawley Town
08 Aug
Watford
1 : 0 Crawley Town
03 Aug
York City
0 : 2 Crawley Town
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
