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Sweden U23 W vs Italy U23 W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Women 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Eriksson S.
50' Event
Arrigoni G.
59' Event
Rehnberg S.

AI Match Summary

Sweden U23 W in this Friendly International Women 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sweden U23 W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Sweden U23 W
15%
Draws
46%
Italy U23 W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy U23 W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Sweden U23 W have won more games recently than Italy U23 W.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Friendly International Women 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sweden U23 W Clean Sheet 15%
Italy U23 W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sweden U23 W Italy U23 W
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 20 11
Draws 2 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 2.1 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 27, 2025 Friendly International Women
Sweden U23 W vs Italy U23 W
2:1
Jun 2, 2025 Friendly International Women
Italy U23 W vs Sweden U23 W
0:1
Sep 25, 2023 Friendly International Women
Sweden U23 W vs Italy U23 W
0:1
Feb 20, 2023 Friendly International Women
Italy U23 W vs Sweden U23 W
3:1
Nov 25, 2021 Friendly International Women
Italy U23 W vs Sweden U23 W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden U23 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Eriksson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rehnberg S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Italy U23 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Arrigoni G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden U23 W 35 / 100
Italy U23 W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sweden U23 W Italy U23 W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy U23 W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden U23 W scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Italy U23 W let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Sweden U23 W has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sweden U23 W VS Italy U23 W
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sweden U23 W

(Home)
08 Oct
Sweden U23 W
3 : 2
Finland U23 W
08 Jun
Sweden U23 W
1 : 1
Mexico U23 W
03 Jun
Sweden U23 W
2 : 0
Norway U23 W
17 Apr
England U23 W
3 : 0
Sweden U23 W
13 Apr
Norway U23 W
0 : 1
Sweden U23 W
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Italy U23 W

(Away)
08 Oct
Belgium U23 W
1 : 2
Italy U23 W
16 Apr
Germany U23 W
1 : 0
Italy U23 W
12 Apr
Portugal U23 W
1 : 2
Italy U23 W
02 Mar
Portugal U23 W
1 : 3
Italy U23 W
01 Dec
Italy U23 W
1 : 0
Belgium U23 W
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