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Sweden W vs Italy W Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

World Cup Women Gamla Ullevi, Göteborg
Sweden W Logo

Sweden W

2 - 2
FT
Italy W Logo

Italy W

Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Oliviero E.
Assist: Cantore S.
45' Event
Piemonte M.
Assist: Oliviero E.
46'
Sub
Sandberg A. In: Lundkvist H.
Out: Sandberg A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. The second leg ended 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Sweden W
35%
Draws
42%
Italy W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Italy W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Sweden W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Italy W taking it.
  • Sweden W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sweden W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sweden W Clean Sheet 20%
Italy W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sweden W Italy W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 7 10
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.03 1.52
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 World Cup Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
2:2
Mar 3, 2026 World Cup Women
Italy W vs Sweden W
0:1
May 30, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Italy W vs Sweden W
0:0
Apr 4, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
3:2
Oct 31, 2023 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden W Compare

Top Goalscorer Rolfo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Italy W Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliviero E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Piemonte M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden W 10 / 100
Italy W 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sweden W Italy W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden W scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Italy W conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Sweden W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sweden W VS Italy W
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sweden W

(Home)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Denmark W
2 : 1
Sweden W
18 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 0
Serbia W
14 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 2
Denmark W
07 Mar
Serbia W
0 : 0
Sweden W
Page 1 of 6

Italy W

(Away)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0
Serbia W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0
Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6
Italy W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1
Denmark W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Denmark W 6 4 2 0 12:5 14
2 Italy W 6 2 3 1 12:4 9
3 Sweden W 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Serbia W 6 0 1 5 2:17 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France W 6 4 1 1 11:5 13
2 Netherlands W 6 3 2 1 12:9 11
3 Ireland W 6 3 0 3 9:9 9
4 Poland W 6 0 1 5 6:15 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain W 6 5 0 1 21:3 15
2 England W 6 5 0 1 13:5 15
3 Iceland W 6 2 0 4 3:12 6
4 Ukraine W 6 0 0 6 2:19 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany W 6 5 1 0 18:1 16
2 Norway W 6 4 0 2 11:9 12
3 Austria W 6 1 1 4 3:9 4
4 Slovenia W 6 1 0 5 3:16 3
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)