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Sweden W vs Italy W

World World

World Cup Women Gamla Ullevi
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This World Cup Women encounter between Sweden W and Italy W promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Sweden W averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded in recent matches. Italy W shows a form average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Sweden W, 0 wins for Italy W, and 3 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 09.06.26 ended in a 2:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.13 for Sweden W and 1.44 for Italy W, suggesting the primary value lies in the Sweden W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Sweden W
35%
Draws
27%
Italy W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sweden W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Sweden W picked up more points recently compared to Italy W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Sweden W Clean Sheet 16%
Italy W Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sweden W Italy W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 7 10
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.97 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

09.06.26 World Cup Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
2:2
03.03.26 World Cup Women
Italy W vs Sweden W
0:1
30.05.25 UEFA Nations League Women
Italy W vs Sweden W
0:0
04.04.25 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
3:2
31.10.23 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Sweden W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Italy W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden W Compare

Top Goalscorer Rolfo F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Italy W Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliviero E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Piemonte M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden W 37 / 100
Italy W 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sweden W Italy W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sweden W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Sweden W 42%
Italy W 22%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Sweden W 36%
Italy W 28%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Sweden W 38%
Italy W 27%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Sweden W 40%
Italy W 26%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Sweden W 34%
Italy W 30%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Sweden W 44%
Italy W 31%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sweden W attacking → ← attacking Italy W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sweden W have found the net in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Italy W have conceded at least one goal in 60% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.40 goals per match.

Sweden W remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Italy W suffered defeat in 0 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Knockout cup fixture where progress is the sole objective; expect high motivation and potential extra time drama.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

52 Points in last 5 43
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Denmark W642012:514
2Italy W623112:49
3Sweden W62226:68
4Serbia W60152:171
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1France W641111:513
2Netherlands W632112:911
3Ireland W63039:99
4Poland W60156:151
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Spain W650121:315
2England W650113:515
3Iceland W62043:126
4Ukraine W60062:190
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Germany W651018:116
2Norway W640211:912
3Austria W61143:94
4Slovenia W61053:163